2022 Golden Globes Winners and Prediction Results

It’s been a tumultuous year for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, to say the least. After years of built-up frustration over the organization’s lack of diversity and unlawful behaviour, NBC has cancelled the annual Golden Globes broadcast this year as a result of the backlash. That is not stopping the HFPA from hosting their awards this year in the form of a press release. A few days ago, the organization released their nominees. It’s clear from first glance that the HFPA were aware they were on thin ice and very cautious about getting in hot water, as there are very few if any controversial picks at all. In fact, this may be the best crop of nominees in years, with some welcomed surprises, including nominations for arthouse-leaning films including, Annette and The Lost Daughter.

The HFPA will be announcing their winners via press release tonight but nonetheless, here are our predictions for each film category, as well as our personal picks:

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA 

• Belfast (Could Win)
• CODA (Should Win)
• Dune
• King Richard
• The Power of the Dog (Will Win)

Most awards prognosticators seem very confident that Kenneth Branagh’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age story Belfast, will win the top prize on its road to Best Picture at the Oscars. Belfast is a crowd-pleaser that celebrates the power of cinema and has a compelling comeback narrative for its director Kenneth Branagh. It earned seven nominations, indicating that the HFPA were indeed charmed by the film. However, my money is on Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog. The film is not a crowd-pleaser by any stretch of the imagination, but critics seem to unanimously agree that it is one of, if not the greatest film of the year. We saw the HFPA side with the critics favourite over the audience crowd-pleaser in the past, including last year when Nomadland won over The Trial of the Chicago 7.  In addition, The Power of the Dog tied Belfast’s record of seven nominations and has a much better chance at winning both Best Director and Best Screenplay. I personally don’t see anything challenging those two, but I suppose Dune has a chance to upset. It made bank at the box office and the HFPA occasionally are drawn to technical achievements.

Winner: The Power of the Dog

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

• Cyrano
• Don’t Look Up (Could Win)
• Licorice Pizza (Should Win)
• Tick, Tick… Boom!
• West Side Story (Will Win)

Typically, the Musical/Comedy categories are far less competitive than the Drama categories, but this year that is certainly not the case. 2022 has been dubbed “the year of musicals”, so it would only make sense for a musical to win this year.  Steven Spielberg’s West Side Story blew expectations out of the water and is widely considered a return to form for the legendary filmmaker. It has done very well with both mass audiences and critics, and awarding it would also be a nice tribute to the late Steven Sondheim, who wrote the source material. That being said, the HFPA are trend-hoppers and like a success story. Despite earning very mixed reviews, Don’t Look Up has done incredibly well in terms of streaming numbers and is one of the most widely seen films in the awards race. Both Cyrano and Tick, Tick… Boom! will likely be cancelled out by West Side Story, and Licorice Pizza has far too much controversy surrounding it to pull off the upset.

Winner: West Side Story

BEST DIRECTOR

• Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (Will Win)
• Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
• Steven Spielberg, West Side Story (Could Win & Should Win)
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune

Jane Campion has swept every precursor so far for The Power of the Dog, indicating that she is far and away the front runner to win this award. She has a compelling comeback narrative surrounding her and is very well respected within the industry. It is reminiscent of last year, when Chloe Zhao ran through the season, winning practically every award. If anyone could challenge her, however, it is Steven Spielberg, who delivered his best work in years and has seen his fair share of success at the Golden Globes in the past.

Winner: Jane Campion

BEST SCREENPLAY

• Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza (Could Win & Should Win)
• Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog (Will Win)
• Adam McKay, Don’t Look Up
• Aaron Sorkin, Being the Ricardos

Best Screenplay is without a doubt, the most difficult category to predict. Outside of Being the Ricardos (which is only here because the HFPA absolutely loves Aaron Sorkin), any of the nominees could realistically win. If I had to narrow it down, The Power of the Dog and Licorice Pizza are the two that seem to be the most likely to win this award. Both are both extremely well written and are currently the front runners in their respective categories at the Oscars. I would give The Power of the Dog the edge, as it has a better chance at winning the top prize and is more elegantly written, but awarding Licorice Pizza would also make up for the HFPA overlooking Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in the past.

Winner: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA

Kristen Stewart has been the front runner since Spencer debuted to outstanding reviews at the Venice Film Festival. However, the film has almost completely dropped out of the Oscar race, despite having support from critics. There has been some divisiveness surrounding her portrayal of Princess Diana, as many feel that it is historically inaccurate and borderline distracting. However, she also has far and away the most amount of support out of any of the nominees in this category. Awards pundits are skeptical that she will win, especially at the Golden Globes, but I fail to find a worthy challenger. The Eyes of Tammy Faye was not well received, neither was House of Gucci. Although both women give strong performances and have been campaigning more prominently than Stewart, I don’t have confidence in either actress winning this award, despite how theatrical their performances are. Nicole Kidman’s portrayal of Lucile Ball is very divisive, as many feel she was miscast. The HFPA seems to love the The Lost Daughter, so it is possible that Olivia Coleman could challenge. However, my money is still on Stewart.

Winner: Nicole Kidman

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA

You would have to be very bold to bet against Will Smith at the Golden Globes. He is certainly not the lock we initially thought he was at the Oscars, but it would be uncharacteristic of the HFPA to pass up the opportunity to award one of the biggest celebrities in the world. Benedict Cumberbatch is likely the runner-up, but even he does not stand much of a chance against Smith.

Winner: Will Smith

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

• Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza (Could Win & Should Win)
• Emma Stone, Cruella
• Jennifer Lawrence, Don’t Look Up
• Marion Cotillard, Annette
• Rachel Zegler, West Side Story (Will Win)

This is the battle of the two newcomers. Both Alana Haim and Rachel Zegler have shown much promise in their debut performances, and one of them is likely to walk away with the award. While I believe Alana Haim is more likely to earn a Best Actress nomination at the Oscars and has been getting more attention from the critics’ circles, I would put my money on Rachel Zegler. Zegler gives the kind of performance that the HFPA is typically drawn to. She is phenomenal in the lead role of West Side Story and I would be surprised if she didn’t walk away with the award.

Winner: Rachel Zegler

BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

While both Leonardo DiCaprio and Peter Dinklage are certainly not out of the race, this seems like Andrew Garfield’s award to lose. He has had an outstanding year, and many people are very passionate about his performance in Tick, Tick… Boom! It’s a dedicated and versatile performance, that required him to learn how to sing and play the piano. It is also the kind of energetic, upbeat performance that the HFPA are typically drawn to.

Winner: Andre Garfield

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Ariana DeBose, West Side Story (Will Win & Should Win)
• Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard (Could Win)
• Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
• Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
• Ruth Negga, Passing

While Caitriona Balfe and Aunjanue Ellis had their time as front runners in this category, as soon as West Side Story premiered, Ariana DeBose became the only topic of conversation. Just like Will Smith in Best Actor, this seems like a done deal.

Winner: Ariana DeBose

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar (Will Win)
• Jamie Dornan, Belfast
• Ciarán Hinds, Belfast (Could Win)
• Troy Kotsur, CODA (Should Win)
• Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog 

• The French Dispatch
• Encanto
• The Power of the Dog (Could Win)
• Parallel Mothers
• Dune (Will Win & Should Win)

Two words: Hans Zimmer. Dune has the most eclectic and cinematic score of the year. I would be shocked if it does not sweep this category throughout awards season.

Winner: Dune

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: No Time To Die

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Tristan French