The nominations for the 28th annual Screen Actors Guild Awards will officially be announced tomorrow, so in preparation, here are our predictions for each of the film-related categories.
BEST ENSEMBLE
- West Side Story
- The Power of the Dog
- Belfast
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- The Harder They Fall
- Licorice Pizza
- Being the Ricardos
- King Richard
- The French Dispatch
While there are many films in the mix for SAG Ensemble, I feel very confident about these five in particular. Belfast, Power of the Dog and West Side Story are currently the front runners in the Best Picture race, and they all have multiple potential nominees in the acting categories. The Screen Actors Guild typically likes to include an independent movie with more subtle performances in this category, and CODA perfectly fits that bill. Don’t Look Up has the biggest ensemble of the year in terms of A-list talent and it is in the Best Picture conversation, so it seems like a safe bet. If there’s one dark horse to look out for, it’s The Harder They Fall, which is not an awards contender whatsoever, but has an impressive cast of high-profile actors and did very well with mass audiences on Netflix.
BEST ACTRESS
- Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
- Kristen Stewart – Spencer
- Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
- Lady Gaga – House of Gucci
- Rachel Zegler – West Side Story
- Emilia Jones – CODA
- Olivia Coleman – The Lost Daughter
- Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
- Alana Haim – Licorice Pizza
- Jennifer Hudson – Respect
Nicole Kidman is coming off a big win at the Golden Globes, so it’s only fair that I put her in the number one spot. However, this is a category where a number of different scenarios could take place. While The Eyes of Tammy Faye has lost most of its momentum, Jessica Chastain gives a show-stopping performance that is certainly the most flashy of the bunch. Lady Gaga also gives a flashy performance in House of Gucci, another film that has lost most of its momentum in the awards race. The Screen Actors Guild tend to be drawn to star power, so even though the two aren’t the most well-received films, both actresses are pretty much guaranteed a nomination. Then there’s Kristen Stewart, who has been sweeping the critics’ awards. Her performance is someone divisive with the masses, as some are bothered by its historical inaccuracy.
However, there is more than enough passion for her performance within the industry to at least earn a nomination. I’d argue that she has a good chance to win, although it is probably more likely at the Oscars than at the SAGs. The fifth slot is where it gets tricky. Rachel Zegler is coming off a big win at the Golden Globes, and West Side Story has a lot of momentum right now. While she is young and a newcomer (two hurdles that are difficult to overcome, especially at the SAGs), the strength of her performance and contributions to West Side Story as a whole, will likely carry her to a nomination. Olivia Coleman, Penelope Cruz and Alana Haim are all in the mix, but stand a better chance at the BAFTAs and The Oscars. Emilia Jones, however, could surprise people and earn a nomination. CODA is the kind of movie that is right up the SAGs alley. Emilia had to learn how to sing and speak sign language for the role, which SAG members will likely appreciate.
BEST ACTOR
- Will Smith – King Richard
- Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick… Boom!
- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
- Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
- Leonardo DiCaprio – Don’t Look Up
- Peter Dinklage – Cyrano
- Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
- Mahershala Ali – Swan Song
- Adam Driver – House of Gucci
- Bradley Cooper – Nightmare Alley
Best Actor has become a three-horse race between Will Smith, Andrew Garfield and Benedict Cumberbatch. All three are guaranteed spots in the SAG lineup and it will be interesting to see which one of them walks away with the award. Denzel Washington also seems to be firmly in the lineup. The last spot is between Leonardo DiCaprio and Peter Dinklage. While I believe Dinklage is far more likely to get the Oscar nomination, I have a hunch that Leo will take his spot at the SAGs. Cyrano still hasn’t gotten a wide release yet and Don’t Look Up is currently having a moment on Netflix. In addition, DiCaprio is a bigger star than Dinklage.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
- Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
- Caitriona Balfe – Belfast
- Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
- Marlee Matlin – CODA
- Rita Moreno – West Side Story
- Ruth Negga – Passing
- Ann Dowd – Mass
- Meryl Streep – Don’t Look Up
- Cate Blanchett – Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, Aunjanue Ellis, Caitriona Balfe and Kirsten Dunst have been locks from the beginning of awards season. They have gotten in at every major awards show so far, so there’s no reason to believe they won’t get in at the SAGs. The fifth spot is tricky, as there are a number of contenders that could possibly get in. The most likely is Marlee Matlin, as CODA is currently having a moment and she is a beloved actress with a compelling comeback narrative. The Screen Actors Guild often vote with their hearts, so Rita Moreno could get in based on sentimentality alone. There’s also Ruth Negga and Ann Dowd, both of which give very strong performances, in films that are unfortunately going under the radar.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
- Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
- Troy Kotsur – CODA
- Jamie Dornan – Belfast
- Jared Leto – House of Gucci
- Ben Affleck – The Tender Bar
- JK Simmons – Being the Ricardos
- Mike Faist – West Side Story
- Bradley Cooper – Licorice Pizza
- Jon Bernthal – King Richard
Just like Supporting Actress, the top four are locks. That fifth slow, however, is difficult to predict. Unlike supporting actress, which has a wealth of great performances to choose from, supporting actor is very weak. Mike Faist deserves that spot for his towering performance in West Side Story, but he hasn’t been picking up many nominations thus far and is being overshadowed by his co-stars. Affleck and Simmons could slip in, but both movies are rapidly losing steam. I’m hedging my bets on Jared Leto, who gives the single most divisive performance of the year. Many people think he is absolutely horrible in House of Gucci, while others believe he gave flavour to an otherwise lifeless film. Regardless, the SAGs gave Hillbilly Elegy multiple nominations last year and they nominated Jared Leto for The Little Things, so they are not above nominating his performance in House of Gucci.
STUNT ENSEMBLE
- Shang Chi & the Legend of the Ten Rings
- Spider-Man: No Way Home
- No Time to Die
- Dune
- The Suicide Squad
- The Matrix: Resurrections
- Black Widow
- Eternals
- Don’t Look Up
- Belfast
This year, there is a wealth of action-packed blockbusters for the Screen Actors Guild to choose from for this category. Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings seems like the most likely, as it has multiple elaborate martial arts sequences. Spider-Man: No Way Home also seems like a safe bet, as it is the highest-grossing film of the year and is currently having a moment. No Time to Die and Dune have been doing very well in the technical categories at the precursors, and they were both immensely popular. The fifth slot is likely either going to go to The Suicide Squad or The Matrix Resurrections. The former is extremely well-liked and has an entire opening sequence lead by elaborate stunts, so it seems likely to get a nomination.
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