We have a long way to go before major awards bodies begin announcing their nominations, but Best Actress is already looking to be the most competitive field. While the actresses who are likely to get nominated seems fairly easy to predict, all five have a fairly decent chance at winning the Academy Award. Let’s take a look at this year’s Best Actress race.
Some awards pundits are skeptical about Blanchett’s frontrunner status, considering she is already a two-time Oscar winner for her performances in The Aviator and Blue Jasmine, competing against several actresses with overdue narratives. That being said, Blanchett’s performance in TÁR is so undeniably brilliant and ground-breaking, that it seems almost inevitable that she will become one of the few actors to receive three Oscars. Blanchett is the nucleus of the film, commanding every scene of the film. Many critics have deemed it her crowning achievement and it’s likely to go down as one of the greatest performances of the 21st Century.
In any other year, Cate Blanchett would be a near-lock to win this category. While she is the clear frontrunner at the moment, she has some tough competition with Michelle Yeoh, who also delivered an absolutely brilliant performance this year in Everything Everywhere All at Once. While Blanchett’s performance is closer to the kind of work that Academy tends to honor, Yeoh’s role is arguably even more challenging, as the film requires her to juggle multiple tones and quickly adapt to abrupt genre shifts. Yeoh has been a household name in both a household name in both Hollywood and international cinema for over two decades and has never been nominated by the Academy, despite delivering acclaimed work in many films including the Best Picture nominated film Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. With Yeoh starting to gain recognition as one of the best actresses of her generation and delivering her crowning achievement in a film that is being hailed as a masterpiece, it’s very possible that the Academy will want to celebrate her by giving her the award.
Danielle Deadwyler is a much smaller name compared to acting titans like Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett, but her devastating performance in Till is no less impressive. Deadwyler garnered attention for her supporting role in The Harder They Fall just last year, but this is her major breakout role that cements her as one of the most promising actors coming up at the moment. Portraying Mamie Till, civil rights activist and mother of Emmett Till, is a daunting responsibility for any actress, never mind a newcomer. However, she bravely takes on that responsibility, delivering a deeply felt, respectful and absolutely heartbreaking performance that will stick in the mind of audiences long after the end credits roll. Deadwyler doesn’t yet have the legacy that her competitors do and the film is not likely to be a contender in most other categories so she does have an uphill battle. However, her performance is certainly strong enough to deserve an Academy Award, and it’s the type of role that I could see the SAGs in particular gravitate towards.
In an era where “movie stars” almost seems like a thing of the past, Margot Robbie is one of the few actors to emerge in recent years that has managed to achieve both universal acclaim and A-list celebrity status. Robbie has worked with the likes of Martin Scorsese and Quentin Tarantino and has earned two Academy Award nominations, establishing her as a highly accomplished actress at a relatively young age. Babylon sees Robbie working with Damien Chazelle, one of today’s leading filmmakers who has a history of directing his actors to Oscar wins. First reactions to Babylon indicate that it is fairly polarizing and will have vocal detractors but everyone seems to agree that Robbie delivers an outstanding performance. While I am fairly confident that Robbie will win an Oscar within the next five years, the divisive nature of the film, paired with the fact that her role is perhaps less emotionally resonant than her competition, makes me feel like she may have trouble winning the award this time around. She would have to win the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical actress to enter the winning conversation which is a tough feat considering she’s going against Michelle Yeoh.
Time to address the elephant in the room. Michelle Williams and the marketing team behind The Fabelmans have recently announced that she will be campaigning for Best Actress, despite clearly being a supporting player in the film. Williams is nonetheless incredible, delivering a heartfelt, lived-in and showy performance that feels a like a classic Oscar winning role. If she was campaigning in the Best Supporting Actress category, I would have her the number one spot without a doubt. However, not only is Best Actress a far more competitive field, it also feels strange that a performance like Williams’ that is absent for large portions of the film she is in, is competing against performances that command almost every scene of their respective films. I have a hunch that the Academy will end up throwing Williams in the Supporting Actress category but because that type of category interference is extremely rare (although it happened just two years ago with Lakeith Stanfield), I have to include her in my Best Actress predictions at the moment.
I Wanna Dance with Somebody is one of the few films this awards season that has not been screened yet, so it’s unclear whether the film and Naomi Ackie’s performance are Oscar caliber. Ackie is a relatively well-established actress in Television (starring in high-profile series such as Master of None and the End of the F**king World), but she still has yet to make the leap over to the film industry. What makes Ackie a potential contender for Best Actress is the fact that she’s portraying Whitney Houston, an extremely well-known and respected figure within music and pop culture in general. The Academy have a history of honoring performances from music biopics, especially when the actor portraying an iconic singer, attempts to replicate their vocal stylings. While I Wanna Dance with Somebody seems to be more of a crowd-pleasing Christmas release than a legitimate awards contender, if Ackie’s performance is well received by critics and fans of Whitney Houston, she could end up being a top contender in this category.
While The Woman King has lost a considerable amount of steam since debuting to an A+ Cinemascore in September, Viola Davis’ portrayal of fierce warrior Nanisca, is still being frequently mentioned as one of the best performances of the year. Davis is already considered a titan of acting but the film further established her legacy by showing that she’s capable of leading an action-blockbuster, while still delivering the emotional gravitas she’s known for. If it surges back into the Best Picture conversation within the next few months or Michelle Williams switches categories, then Viola Davis could certainly re-enter the race, but for now I feel like she may narrowly miss a nomination this time around.
Olivia Colman has recently become this generations, Meryl Streep; in that she gets nominated almost every year. At the beginning of the season, Colman seemed like a near-lock to earn her fourth Academy Award nomination. However, Empire of Light is one of the year’s many early contenders that has not panned out whatsoever. The film earned mixed-to-negative reviews during the fall festival circuit from both critics and audiences, who believe that it tries to tackle far too many major topics, that it feels unfocused and overstuffed. While Sam Mendes is a very well-respected filmmaker, some believe it is one of his worst films, mainly due to the fact that it is his first film where he wrote the script himself. Colman does have a meaty role with multiple Oscar clips, but she has given more impressive performances in the past and her portrayal of schizophrenia has been negatively perceived by some critics who deem it inauthentic and shallow.
Good Luck to You, Leo Grande was one of the standouts of the Sundance Film Festival this year. While the film was distributed by Hulu and has slipped under the radar, thus not receiving a proper awards campaign, Emma Thompson is so vulnerable and undeniably brilliant in this role that it would be a crime if every major awards body passed up the opportunity to nominate her. It’s a funny, insightful and daring exploration of an aging woman’s sexual desires, but still remains tasteful. The fact that Bill Nighy’s performance in Living is somehow the only Sundance film that is still a major contender in the awards race is absurd, considering Thompson gives a far more impressive performance. Thompson is a previous Academy Award winner and a very high-profile name, so while it seems unlikely at this point, a nomination is still within the realm of possibility.
Jennifer Lawrence’s performance in Causeway is perhaps too understated to garner the attention of the Academy, but critics groups could give her a boost. After a long hiatus and a return to her indie roots, the film community seems to be on Lawrence’s side once again. I personally believe Bryan Tyree Henry’s work in the film is more deserving of awards attention and more likely to wind up earning a nomination in his respective category. However, awards pundits should never count out Lawrence, especially when she’s in a film as strong as this one.
Stay tuned for more awards coverage in the coming weeks, as we will break down the contenders in each major category.
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