As we get deeper into awards season, the Best Actor race seems more and more unclear from a nomination standpoint. Unlike Best Actress, there is a very clear frontrunner, but those final two slots seem relatively up in the air. Let’s take a look at the state of the Best Actor race.
Unlike the Best Actress race, which is currently extremely competitive and could result in a number of different outcomes, the Best Actor race feels fairly locked in at this point. Brendan Fraser was the face of family entertainment in the late 90s and the 2000s, delivering charismatic and loveable performances in a number of films that wouldn’t be remembered fondly if it weren’t for his magnetic screen presence. After being wrongly blacklisted from the industry and essentially being relegated to supporting roles in television for the past several years, Fraser is back in a very meaty role that allows him the opportunity to showcase his talents in a way that he has never been able to before. In The Whale, Fraser undergoes a spiritual and physical transformation, delivering a performance that is both heartbreaking and genuinely cathartic. It is one of the most astonishing performances in recent years. With the amount of support Fraser has, even from fans who have yet to see the movie, it seems inevitable that Fraser’s Cinderella story will occur.
Unlike Fraser, who has never been considered a “serious” actor until this year, Colin Farrell has an incredibly impressive filmography, that spans from blockbusters to arthouse-leaning indies. Farrell is a major name who has been in the industry for a long time and has consistently churned-out great work yet has never been recognized by the Academy. Farrell has had an incredible year, starring in films such as After Yang, Thirteen Lives, and The Batman earlier this year. Yet it’s his latest collaboration with In Bruges director Martin McDonagh and co-star Brendan Gleeson, that has given Farrell his strongest reviews to date. It’s a subtle, tonally challenging and quietly heartbreaking performance that plays to all of his strengths as an actor. While the role is not quite as challenging or showy as what Fraser is doing in The Whale, it’s brilliant work that is certainly worthy of a nomination. The industry will want to celebrate Farrell’s career this year, so while I have a hard time believing he will win the Oscar over Fraser, he will likely pick up some precursor and critics’ awards.
Baz Luhrman’s Elvis did extremely well at the box office and could potentially be an Oscar contender in a number of categories, but it’s bombastic style and frantic editing was fairly divisive among critics and the film community at large. That being said, you’ll be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t sing praise for Austin Butler to some extent. Butler doesn’t just impersonate Elvis, he becomes him, perfectly capturing his mannerisms, vocal inflections and singing style throughout different sections of his career. It’s a remarkable transformation that ranks among the best music biopic performances in recent years and establishes Butler as a major name to look out for. Due to the precision and detail Butler put into his role, I could see some major awards bodies such as the Golden Globes and the SAGs granting him the prize over his competition.
Damien Chazelle’s Babylon may have garnered polarizing reactions out of the initial LA/NY press screenings, but Diego Calva, alongside his co-star Margot Robbie, seem to be receiving unanimous praise for their respective performances. Calva is a newcomer and acts as the audiences surrogate in the film, so naturally he’s not going be Paramount’s main priority when campaigning the film. However, the Best Actor race is looking particularly sparse, and considering he is successful in leading a 3-hour bombastic film with an all-star supporting cast, I would assume he wouldn’t have a difficult time nabbing a nomination in this category, especially if Babylon is a Best Picture contender.
Just like the movie itself, Tom Cruise’s performance in Top Gun: Maverick certainly doesn’t scream “Oscars”. It’s not a particularly emotionally challenging or transformative role, making it stand out like a sore thumb in a category filled with more traditional awards-worthy performances. That being said, Cruise is perhaps the most magnetic and charismatic movie star to ever walk the face of the earth, and he has continued to push boundaries within the action-genre for the past few decades. Cruise has given more traditionally impressive performances in films like Born on the Fourth of July, Eyes Wide Shut, Jerry Maguire and Magnolia, but the way he commands the screen here is extremely impressive in its own right. He went above and beyond, both in front of the camera and behind the scenes, to create a genuinely cinematic and awe-inspiring blockbuster that has become one of the defining films of the decade so far. If the Academy is honoring Top Gun: Maverick in a number of categories including Best Picture, then it only makes sense that they would also nominate the man who made it all possible, especially considering he hasn’t been nominated since 1999.
Living is a decent, if unremarkable remake of Akira Kurosawa’s classic Ikiru. It certainly isn’t one of the most talked about films of the year, but it is doing exceptionally well with older audiences, especially those who were around to experience Ikiru when it was relatively new and can now relate to the story on a whole new level. I’m not sure how much I buy Living as a genuine Oscar contender, especially considering it didn’t make much noise when it initially premiered at the Sundance Film Festival. However, Sony Pictures Classics is behind it and are very skilled at squeezing nominations out of films that may seem dead in the water in the grand scheme of awards season. Bill Nighy is a very well-known and respected actor, especially in the UK, and many are pushing for him to receive his first Oscar nomination. While the performance isn’t necessarily outstanding, Nighy does a good job at portraying a man who has no choice but to stare death in the face and reconsider the purpose of his life. Nighy will certainly be nominated at the BAFTAs and some other major precursors, so an Oscar nomination seems quite possible.
In a year where quite a few films that initially seemed to be major awards contenders, ended up not living up to expectations, Florian Zeller’s sophomore effort The Son may be the biggest flop of them all. The Son received scathing reviews from critics out of the fall film festivals, with many calling the film emotionally manipulative to a ridiculous degree and criticizing its portrayal of teenage depression. This was the film that many pundits expected would finally win Hugh Jackman an Oscar. That is obviously not happening at this point, but a nomination isn’t necessarily out of reach. Viewers still praised Jackman’s portrayal of a father trying desperately to connect to his son, even if the material he is given isn’t strong. Sony Picture Classics also seems to be prioritizing Living at this point, so Jackman needs to mount a strong campaign himself if he wants to break into the lineup.
Young actors are not usually nominated at the Oscars, especially in the Best Lead Actor category. However, 20-year-old newcomer Gabrielle LaBelle has an interesting narrative going for him. First off, he’s the lead in The Fabelmans, which is naturally going to have a massive nomination haul at the Oscars, and he happens to be portraying the most famous filmmaker on the planet, Steven Spielberg. LaBelle’s performance is genuinely impressive, tapping into Spielberg’s childhood and a sense of emotional depth to the role that is wise beyond his years.
Normal People star Paul Mescal has made the leap from television to cinema, quickly becoming one of the most promising actors of his generation. Mescal has taken some interesting roles within the past year or two, but the standout is definitely his performance in Charlotte Welles Aftersun. It’s an extremely subdued and internalized performance that is maybe too quiet for the Academy to embrace, especially considering how impressionistic the film is in general. However, both the film and Mescal’s performance is widely acclaimed and doing exceptionally well at the early precursor awards so far. Whether that translates into a nomination or not is unclear.
A24 has distributed a slew of potential awards contenders this year, and I’m fairly certain they’ll be focusing on other films (Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Whale, Aftersun, Close) when mounting their Oscar campaigns. However, Hollywood star Jeremy Pope has garnered universal acclaim for his performance in The Inspection, a film that is somewhat of a traditional awards contender. Considering the subject matter and how beloved the performance is overall; Pope could potentially leapfrog his competitors and earn a slot in the top 5 at the end of the day.
Stay tuned for more awards coverage in the coming weeks, as we will break down the contenders in each major category.
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