With the 80th Golden Globes coming back to TV tomorrow, I decided to put together my thoughts and predictions for each of the film-centric categories. ***Updated with tonight’s winners***
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
Earlier in the season, The Fabelmans seemed like the clear favorite to win in this category, but as its dominance throughout awards season has somewhat dwindled, this has become an open race. While Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical coming-of-age drama could still win the top prize, this seems to be a battle between the two record breaking blockbusters. Top Gun: Maverick has maintained momentum all year long and has won countless awards at critics circles, while Avatar: The Way of Water is the movie of the current moment and is dominant at the box office. Both films helped usher audiences back into theatres and push cinema forward, redefining what a blockbuster can and should strive for. If I had to give the edge to one film however, it would definitely be Top Gun: Maverick. Although the film somewhat underperformed in terms of nominations, I have a feeling it could realistically win all the awards it’s up for.
WILL WIN: Top Gun: Maverick
COULD WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water OR The Fabelmans
SHOULD WIN: The Fabelmans OR TÁR
WINNER: The Fabelmans
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
With Danielle Deadwyler missing out on a nomination altogether for her astonishing work in Till, there isn’t any nominee who can realistically challenge Cate Blanchett in this category. The three-time Golden Globe winner is looking to join an exclusive club of actors with four wins under their name. Her performance in TÁR is unanimously considered her best work to date and it would absolutely criminal if the HFPA give this award to anyone else in this category, seeing as her biggest competition for the Oscar (Michelle Yeoh), is competing in another category. If the HFPA decide to go all in on The Fabelmans, I suppose it’s possible that Michelle Williams could pull an upset, but considering the divisive nature of her category placement and that performance in general, I don’t see it happening.
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
COULD WIN: Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
SHOULD WIN: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
WINNER: Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
While I strongly believe Brendan Fraser should be winning this award for his absolutely heartbreaking dramatic turn in The Whale, considering the fact that the film’s stock has dropped rapidly and it didn’t receive any other nominations, Fraser does have an uphill battle. Elvis on the other hand overperformed at the Globes, and Austin Butler has been waiting in the wings all season for his opportunity to climb the ranks. While Butler doesn’t have the name recognition or the compelling career narrative that Fraser does, his performance in Elvis is admittedly show-stopping and worthy of winning awards, as he embodies and humanizes a pop-culture figure that everyone on the planet is familiar with. It’s the kind of performance that the HFPA are typically drawn to, and considering how much they seemed to love Elvis, I think Butler will leapfrog Fraser and assert himself as a contender to win the Oscar.
WILL WIN: Austin Butler (Elvis)
COULD WIN: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
SHOULD WIN: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
WINNER: Austin Butler (Elvis)
BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Usually the Musical or Comedy categories tend to be less competitive than the Drama categories, but that certainly isn’t the case this year, as the two top Best Picture contenders at the moment are both competing in this category. Everything Everywhere All at Once has been my prediction to win Best Picture at the Oscars since I saw it back in March, and while that still certainly holds true, I may have to predict another outcome at the Golden Globes. Both Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin performed exceedingly well, but considering the latter tied the record for most nominations a film has ever received with a whopping 8, it’s hard to bet against it in this category. In 2015, The HFPA went with The Grand Budapest Hotel over Birdman in this category, despite the latter going on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. I have a feeling that this year may see a similar outcome. Both are zany movies brimming with creativity that push cinema forward, but like the former, The Banshees of Inisherin may be an easier pill for the HFPA to swallow, especially considering the organization inducted more international members this year.
WILL WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin
COULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
WINNER: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
Earlier in the season, I would have said was going to be a fierce competition between Michelle Yeoh and Margot Robbie, but after seeing Babylon, I really don’t think Robbie’s performance holds a candle to what Yeoh was able to achieve in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Michelle Yeoh has been overlooked by awards bodies her entire career, despite being a globally recognized star who has been in an extremely diverse array of films over the past few decades. Yeoh has a really strong career narrative, but above all else, she delivers a performance that is among the best of the entire century. It is a extremely challenging role to spearhead a movie as zany, genre-bending and emotionally resonant as Everything Everywhere All at Once, but Yeoh does it with ease, cementing herself as one of the greats. If both Yeoh and Blanchett win in there respective categories, this could be one of the most intense Best Actress races we have ever seen at the Oscars, as both performances are going to be studied for years to come and are equally deserving of winning that statue. While she has no chance of winning this award, I do want to give a shoutout to Emma Thompson in Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, who has been unfairly ignored this entire season and delvers perhaps her best performance to date. It’s a courageous and forward thinking performance that will likely open a lot of doors for older actresses in terms of what types of roles they are offered, and is certainly among the best of the year.
WILL WIN: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
COULD WIN: Margot Robbie (Babylon)
SHOULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) OR Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You Leo Grande)
WINNER: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL OR COMEDY)
There aren’t many categories at the Golden Globes this year that are a walk in the park to predict, but Colin Farrell is so far ahead in this race compared to his fellow nominees, that it’s almost embarrassing. Farrell has been an A-list actor who has successfully divided his time between high-profile blockbusters and arthouse films for his entire career, but has never really gotten the recognition he deserves. In fact the only awards body to really celebrate Farrell’s past work is the HFPA, who gave him the Golden Globe in this category for his last collaboration with Martin McDonagh, In Bruges. Farrell’s heartbreaking and subdue performance as Pádraic in The Banshees of Inisherin allows him to skillfully teeter the line between absurd comedy and tragedy in a way that truly demonstrates his versatility as an actor. While I enjoy Ralph Fiennes hammy turn as a psychopathic chef fed up with elitism in The Menu, Farrell runs circles around everyone in this category and clearly deserves the award.
WILL WIN: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
COULD WIN: Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
SHOULD WIN: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
WINNER: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ever since Michelle Williams announced that she would be campaigning for lead actress for her performance in The Fabelmans, Best Supporting Actress has been incredibly difficult to predict, and is reminiscent of the race for Best Supporting Actor last year. Kerry Condon seems to have the slight lead at the moment, due to her success at the critics circles thus far and the strength of The Banshees of Inisherin overall. In a film filled with absurdity, Condon is the voice of reason and delivers an emotionally resonant performance that stands out from the pack. However, the award could realistically go to anyone in this category, outside of maybe Carey Mulligan. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever didn’t receive the same level acclaim or have the cultural impact of her predecessor, but Angela Bassett’s emotionally fueled tribute to the late Chadwick Boseman, is perhaps her greatest performance in years. Unlike many of my peers, I do believe that Jamie Lee Curtis’ inclusion in this lineup is more than just career recognition. Deirdre Beaubeirdre could have easily been a throwaway character purely there for comedic relief, and instead Curtis inserted an astonishing level of emotional depth and commitment to the role unrivaled by anyone else in this category. I also am very drawn to Dolly De Leon’s breakout performance in Triangle of Sadness. A fierce, hilarious and poignant turn that spearheads the entire third act of the film. While Condon may be the frontrunner to win the Oscar, I’m giving the edge to Curtis here, as she is beloved by the HFPA and this would be a great way to honor her legacy.
WILL WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
COULD WIN: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
SHOULD WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once) OR Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
WINNER: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
From the moment I saw Everything Everywhere All at Once and was made aware of Ke Huy Quan’s extremely compelling career narrative, I’ve had a strong feeling that he would sweep the entire season, and that’s precisely what he’s done so far. His kindhearted and downright brilliant performance as Waymond Wang is the heart and soul of Everything Everywhere All at Once, elevating the film to another level. While Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan both deliver strong work in The Banshees of Inisherin, they will likely cancel each other out, paving a path to an extremely easy and deserved win for Quan.
WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
COULD WIN: Brendan Gleeson OR Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
SHOULD WIN: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WINNER: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BEST DIRECTOR
Before this year’s awards race had even begun, Steven Spielberg was positioned as the likely frontrunner to sweep the entire season. That narrative was still in place until Spielberg began to lose almost every critics circle award he has been nominated for. The HFPA could certainly revive his chances at winning his third Best Director Oscar, I think they may go in another direction. The Daniels are my prediction to win the Oscar, but I have a feeling the HFPA are going to go for James Cameron. The organization often likes to award directors who pushed cinematic boundaries from a technical perspective, and no one fits that bill more than James Cameron. His work in Avatar: The Way of Water is astonishing and worthy of recognition, even if I’d personally rather see Spielberg or The Daniels take home the statue.
WILL WIN: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
COULD WIN: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
SHOULD WIN: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WINNER: Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
BEST SCREENPLAY
Similar to the Best Motion Picture (Musical or Comedy) category, this race comes down to Everything Everywhere All at Once and The Banshees of Inisherin. While the former has the more creative screenplay, the dialogue in The Banshees of Inisherin is so sharp and it is able to draw such a fine tonal line that it would be difficult to imagine Martin McDonagh not taking home this award. Although I’m still predicting Everything Everywhere All at Once to win the Oscar for Best Picture, despite The Banshees of Inisherin to take home the top prize at the globes, I do believe that its screenplay win here could cross over and earn Martin McDonagh his long awaited Oscar.
WILL WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin
COULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once OR TÁR
WINNER: The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Justin Hurwitz has already won two Golden Globes for First Man and La La Land. It’s likely that the HFPA will award Hurwitz a third time in a span of six years for his bombastic and groundbreaking work in Babylon. His biggest competition is certainly John Williams, who has the narrative that this could be his last time working with Spielberg. However, some believe that his score for The Fabelmans fades into the background and isn’t particularly memorable (which I certainly pushback against, seeing as its my personal favourite score of the year), whereas the Babylon score is almost universally beloved, despite that film earning very mixed reception.
WILL WIN: Babylon
COULD WIN: The Fabelmans
SHOULD WIN: The Fabelmans
WINNER: Babylon
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
The Best Original Song category is always fairly tough to predict at the Golden Globes, especially when there isn’t a clear frontrunner. The HFPA often like to vote for a song where the artist performing it is a celebrity in some capacity. Lady Gaga is a favourite of the HFPA and many prognosticators believe she will win for her 80s inspired power ballad for Top Gun: Maverick. However, she has some fierce competition, as Rihanna is also competing in this category, with her very first song in several years, written for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Taylor Swift is also competing against the two pop juggernauts, with Carolina from Where the Crawdads Sing. I would personally put my money on Gaga though, as the song is right up the HFPA’s alley, and Top Gun: Maverick has the most momentum.
WILL WIN: Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
COULD WIN: Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
SHOULD WIN: Ciao Papa (GDT’s Pinocchio)
WINNER: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM
While it isn’t eligible at the Oscars, due to India deciding not to submit the film, RRR is the clear frontrunner to win in this category. It’s a cultural sensation that has been showing up at a fair share of precursors and could very well sneak into the Best Picture lineup at the Oscars. It helps that it’s very different from the films it’s competing against, both in style and budget, so it completely stands out from the pack. Decision to Leave and All Quiet On the Western Front shouldn’t be counted out though, as both films are highly acclaimed and will be competing to win the Oscar.
WILL WIN: RRR
COULD WIN: All Quiet On the Western Front
SHOULD WIN: RRR
WINNER: Argentina, 1985
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