The Gotham Awards have attained notoriety for being the first major awards body to hand out their awards, officially kicking off awards season. Historically, they’re known for highlighting American independent films and boosting their profile to give them a better chance at the bigger awards ceremonies. However, this year, the Gotham Awards controversially changed their eligibility completely, allowing the committee to nominate any film regardless of its budget. While the Awards may not be an indie haven like it once was, it’s still an important precursor on the road to the Oscars, giving film fans a better idea of how awards season is shaping out. With the 2023 edition of the Gotham Awards being broadcast tonight, here are our picks and predictions for each of the film-related categories.
BEST FEATURE
Historically, The Gotham’s almost always award the top prize to the film that is the strongest contender throughout awards season. The only time this wasn’t the case, was when Chloe Zhao’s The Rider surprisingly won the top prize over the The Favourite, If Beale Street Could Talk and First Reformed. Past Lives is one of the most widely beloved films of the year and is predicted to be a major Oscar contender. However, the film’s early release date and lack of exposure in comparison to its competition has led to its chances slipping in a number of major categories. Winning the Gotham Award for Best Feature would put it on track to eventually earn a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. However, A Thousand & One has an outside chance of pulling an upset and knocking Past Lives off of its pedestal.
- Passages
- Past Lives
- Reality
- Showing Up
- A Thousand & One
WILL WIN: Past Lives
COULD WIN: A Thousand & One
SHOULD WIN: Past Lives
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
- All of Us Strangers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Poor Things
- Totem
- The Zone of Interest
This year’s lineup for Best International Feature at the Gotham Awards is stronger and far more competitive than the Best Feature category. Poor Things, All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest are all expected to be awards season heavy hitters and the latter three were nominated in other categories by the Gotham’s Committee. While All of Us Strangers is the most nominated film this year and clearly has a lot of support with voters, the committee has shown effort in including foreign-language films and will likely vote for one in this category. My bet would be The Zone of Interest, which has received unanimous praise from critics and its experimental nature is right up the Gotham committee’s alley.
WILL WIN: The Zone of Interest
COULD WIN: Anatomy of a Fall or All of Us Strangers
SHOULD WIN: Anatomy of a Fall
BEST DOCUMENTARY
- 20 Days in Mariupol
- Against the Tide
- Apolonia, Apolonia
- Four Daughters
- Our Body
The Best Documentary race is in full force and right now it seems like 20 Days in Mariupol and Four Daughters are on track to earn nominations at the Oscars. 20 Days in Mariupol is certainly the stronger contender and could go on to win the Oscar, but I believe the Gotham’s Committee are going to be drawn to Four Daughters. The film has a unique approach to storytelling and blurred the lines between narrative and documentary filmmaking.
WILL WIN: Four Daughters
COULD WIN: 20 Days in Mariupol
SHOULD WIN: N/A
BEST SCREENPLAY
- All of Us Strangers
- Anatomy of a Fall
- May December
- R.M.N.
- All of Us Strangers
With four nominations under its belt, its difficult not to predict All of Us Strangers to take home at least one of those awards. Best Screenplay is certainly the most likely, but it has some fierce competition. May December and Anatomy of a Fall are writing showcases where the dialogue is the central focus of the film, whereas All of Us Strangers is more of a mood piece driven by Andrew Haigh’s subtle but creative direction. With the buzz it’s been building in recent weeks and the tricky tonal balancing act the writing manages to pull of, I have a feeling May December will take home this award. That being said, it’s very strange Past Lives was snubbed in this category, considering its screenplay is its standout element and its a contender to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars.
WILL WIN: May December
COULD WIN: Anatomy of a Fall or All of Us Strangers
SHOULD WIN: Anatomy of a Fall
BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR
- Raven Jackson – All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt
- Georgia Oakley – Blue Jean
- Michelle Garza Cervera – Huesera
- Celine Song – Past Lives
- A.V. Rockwell – A Thousand & One
If there’s one category that isn’t a toss up whatsoever, it’s Breakthrough Director. Celine Song knocked it out of the park with her directorial debut, Past Lives, becoming a household name before the movie even released theatrically. Song is an exciting new talent and I’m fairly certain that she will be walking away with a number of Breakthrough Director leading up to the Oscars.
WILL WIN: Celine Song – Past Lives
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: Celine Song – Past Lives
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
- Claire Foy – All of Us Strangers
- Rachel McAdams – Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie
- Glenn Howerton – Blackberry
- Penelope Cruz – Ferrari
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
- Charles Melton – May December
- Julliette Binoche – The Taste of Things
- Jamie Foxx – The Clone Tyrone
- Sandra Huller – The Zone of Interest
When it was announced that Ryan Gosling and Penelope Cruz were nominated for Best Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham’s, many were upset that the organization that were once focused on exclusively highlighting American Indies, were now embracing Blockbusters. While the committee may have nominated performances from bigger movies, I believe they are going stay true to their roots and award a performance from an indie. Charles Melton delivered an expertly layered performance and outshined his Oscar winning co-stars in May December. There’s a lot of good will for that performance and I do believe the Gotham committee will be drawn to it. His biggest competition is Glenn Howerton, whose eccentric performance is one of the most beloved of the year.
WILL WIN: Charles Melton – May December
COULD WIN: Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry
SHOULD WIN: Glenn Howerton – BlackBerry
OUTSTANDING LEAD PERFORMANCE
- Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
- Jeffery Wright – American Fiction
- Aunjanue Ellis Taylor – Origin
- Babetida Sadjo – Our Father, The Devil
- Franz Rogowski – Passages
- Greta Lee – Past Lives
- Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla
- Michelle Williams – Showing Up
- Teyana Taylor – A Thousand & One
- Lily Gladstone – An Unknown Country
Similar to the Best Feature category, the Gotham’s committee often votes for the performance that ends up having the strongest chance at the Oscars. This year however, I don’t think that’s necessarily going to be the case. Jeffery Wright is the strongest contender in this category, as American Fiction is on track to become an awards juggernaut. While his performance is certainly impressive, I feel that the Gotham’s will be more drawn to Cailee Spaeny’s subtle turn as Priscilla Presley, or Teyana Taylor’s powerhouse performance in A Thousand & One. Both performances are acclaimed and need a platform to propel themselves further into the awards conversation.
WILL WIN: Teyana Taylor – A Thousand & One
COULD WIN: Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla
SHOULD WIN: Teyana Taylor – A Thousand & One
The 2023 Gotham Awards will be broadcast on Variety’s YouTube channel tonight.
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