When you ask the average person to describe Autumn, the first things that come to mind are likely pumpkin spice lattes, Thanksgiving feasts, watching the colours change, and of course Halloween. However, for cinephiles, Autumn is synonymous with awards season; the final stretch of the year where studios release their prestige films in the months leading up to the end of the Oscar eligibility window. As summer comes to a close, the trifecta of fall film festivals (Venice, Telluride and TIFF) kicks off the start of awards season, acting as a launch pad for many of the year’s greatest films.
As TIFF, Venice, Telluride, NYFF, London, AFI and a variety of other major fall film festivals have all come to a close, we are now officially in the heart of awards season. After Barbenheimer took over the world this summer, many felt that both films would completely dominate the awards conversation all season long. While both films are certainly contending to win many major awards, the fall festivals saw a slew of highly acclaimed and widely beloved work come into the fold, making this one of the most competitive Oscar races in recent memory.
Since most films in the race have been screened at various festivals and are starting to make their way into cinemas across North America, it’s a perfect time to begin our Oscar predictions series, with this installment taking a look at the Best Picture race.
1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
One half of the cultural phenomenon that defined film discourse and dominated the box office this summer, Christopher Nolan’s latest film has already cemented itself as a modern classic and one of the most important pieces of filmmaking of the decade thus far. Nolan is without a doubt the defining filmmaker of his generation. With Oppenheimer, he has found a way to craft artistic and boundary pushing films within the studio system, finding success both critically and commercially.
Nolan has been criticized by detractors for crafting films with a cold and isolating interior, but Oppenheimer seems to be a rare example of a Nolan film that is both intellectually and emotionally stimulating. The film is terrifyingly relevant to our current world situation, as it comments on the looming threat of nuclear warfare. It has also deeply resonated with critics and general audiences alike, with many deeming it Nolan’s crowning achievement as a filmmaker. Despite his illustrious career, Nolan has yet to win an Oscar, and there is a passionate overdue narrative forming around the film. The Best Picture race is extremely tight this year and the tides could easily chance, but as of now, all signs are pointing to Oppenheimer taking the top prize.
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)
Oppenheimer’s biggest competition comes from another one of cinemas most recognizable names, Martin Scorsese. Killers of the Flower Moon premiered at the Cannes Film Festival to strong reviews. However, based on first reactions, I wouldn’t have predicted that the film would become the cultural sensation that it is. Despite its extremely lengthy runtime and dense subject matter, Killers of the Flower Moon has been a frequent topic of conversation within the world of film. Some are even deeming it one of Scorsese’s best and most important films to date. While the film isn’t quite as unanimously adored as Oppenheimer, it has received outstanding reviews from critics. Its exploration of the treatment of indigenous people in North America is eye-opening and a relevant topic of conversation. It’s a topic that hasn’t been explored in mainstream film before, and Academy voters could be compelled to vote for it for that very reason.
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures)
It is also very possible that Nolan and Scorsese’s lengthy, emotionally heavy juggernauts could cancel each other out, leaving room for a lighter film to swoop in and steal the top prize. Enter Yorgos Lanthimos’ Poor Things. The film won the Golden Lion at the Venice Film Festival and has undoubtedly been the talk of the festival circuit. Lanthimos is an incredibly well-respected filmmaker and many seem to believe Poor Things is his crowning achievement. Skeptics have brought up that the film may be too strange or sexually explicit for some Academy voters to stomach, but its take on the classic Frankenstein story and the themes of female and sexual empowerment may win over audiences who failed to connect to Lanthimos’ previous work.
4. Barbie (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Greta Gerwig’s billion-dollar box office extravaganza is this year’s hottest film without a doubt. Much like Top Gun: Maverick last year, Barbie has raised the bar for what a modern blockbuster can and should be. Despite being attached to a recognizable brand, the film perfectly encapsulates the female experience and challenges gender roles, without ever becoming too heavy handed. While its heavy reliance on outlandish comedy and merchandise tie-ins will make for an uphill battle, Barbie’s strong hold on our culture cannot be ignored, and it could translate into awards success.
5. The Holdovers (Focus Features)
When Alexander Payne’s latest film, The Holdovers, screened for industry members at last years Toronto Film Festival, it created an intense bidding war that indicated the film would be a huge awards contender this year. Despite some skepticism from pundits when its old-fashioned trailer was released, the film premiered to an exceptional response from critics and audiences alike, which has since only intensified once screened at TIFF. The Holdovers seems to be capturing the hearts of both movie-goers who long for a bygone era of filmmaking, as well as the most cynical cinephiles. Its widespread admiration will serve it well during awards season and will make it a huge threat in quite a few categories.
6. Maestro (Netflix)
Bradley Cooper’s sophomore directorial effort, Maestro, was expected to be a flop after rumours about poor test screening reactions started circulating, and controversy regarding the casting was brought up on Twitter. Fortunately, re-edits have helped to reshape the film’s status within the awards race this year. Maestro received generally positive reviews from Venice, but really hit its stride at NYFF, where audiences were completely blown away by Cooper’s artistic ode to Leonard Bernstein’s career and relationship to Felicia Montealegre. Stars, Bradley Cooper and Carey Mulligan, are two of the most acclaimed and prolific actors working today, and are criminally overdue for Oscar wins. Based on our review, Cooper and Mulligan each deliver work and are a huge threat to win Best Actor and Best Actress respectively. Many older academy voters who knew and/or worked with Leonard Bernstein will likely be very moved by the film.
7. American Fiction (Amazon MGM Studios)
Before premiering at TIFF, American Fiction was definitely not on most people’s radar. There was a small amount of buzz surrounding Jeffrey Wright’s lead performance, indicating that he could be in contention to receive his first Academy Award nomination. However, it was unclear whether the film would release this year and there was no poster or images made available heading into the festival. That being said, the film quickly started to turn heads with strong reaction from audiences following its world premiere. It surprised many by winning the People’s Choice Award over The Holdovers, which was widely expected to walk away with the top prize. American Fiction has done exceptionally well, winning audience awards at nearly every festival where it has screened. It’s a rousing satirical crowd-pleasing dramedy that challenges audiences and calls out how the industry has taken advantage of and pigeonholed Black artists and artists in minority groups.
8. The Color Purple (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Every year, there’s at least one awards contender that skips the festivals entirely and gains traction right before the major precursors start to announce their nominees. This year, that contender seems to be The Color Purple. While the first trailer received a generally mixed response, early reactions out of the few press screenings that have taken place have been very strong and suggest that the film could be a hit with audiences and the industry. The film appears to be a major threat in the acting categories, and will probably earn a slew of nominations in the craft and tech categories as well. It is also one of the most obvious examples of traditional awards bait this season, so it’s hard to see a world where it drops out of the awards conversation entirely, even if it does flop at the Box Office.
9. Past Lives (A24)
When Celine Song’s highly acclaimed directorial debut, Past Lives, premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to unanimously positive critical reception, many were predicting that A24 could potentially repeat the awards season success they had last year with Everything Everywhere All at Once. A24 took this notion literally, and decided to give Past Lives a summer release date, which was a huge mistake, releasing around the same time as Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. Past Lives is a small and quiet film that needed a platform at the fall film festivals to emerge a major awards player, and is it at risk of being lost in the shuffle. However, it is still one of the most beloved films of the year and will do incredibly well among critics’ circles and indie awards, which will likely push it back into the awards conversation. The film has also started to make waves on TikTok, which could help it have a cultural moment leading into the heart of awards season.
10. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)
Justine Triet’s Hitchcockian courtroom drama was immediately propelled into the awards conversation when it won the Palme D’or and was bought by NEON at the Cannes Film Festival. When it was announced that France wouldn’t be choosing Anatomy of a Fall as their submission for Best International Feature, due to its heavy use of English, many pundits were worried that film could lose traction in other major categories. However, it has done exceptionally well with both audiences and critics during its fall film festival run, is having a strong run theatrically, and has been consistently receiving nominations at many of the indie film focused precursors. While there’s a world in which the film misses out on a Best Picture nomination, it is looking like it has a very good shot at this point
Honourable Mentions
While I am fairly confident that the ten films I listed will earn Best Picture nominations, there are a few other films that pose a threat of disrupting this category. The Zone of Interest (A24) received a whopping score of 98 on Metacritic when it premiered at the Cannes Film Festival, and many critics believe it to be the greatest achievement in filmmaking of the year. While it is extremely isolating and unpalatable to anyone looking for a film with any semblance of storytelling, its relevant themes and unique exploration of the Holocaust could ultimately propel it into the Best Picture race. It has also has been doing exceptionally well at the precursor awards thus far.
All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) earned the most nominations at the Gotham Awards, over juggernauts like Past Lives. While the film is likely to take a similar trajectory to last years Aftersun, Andrew Haigh is a pretty major name in the world of independent film, which could raise its profile. Speaking of major independent filmmakers, Todd Haynes’ May December (Netflix) and Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla (A24) have been making waves recently and are firmly in the conversation in the acting categories, which could translate to a Best Picture nomination.
Despite releasing in the first half of the year, Air (Amazon Studios) and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) are looking to make their way back into the awards conversation. The former could have a strong showing at the Golden Globes, and the latter is undoubtedly winning Best Animated Feature and could start to gain traction in other categories. Lastly, Ridley Scott’s Napoleon (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) looks rancid based solely on the trailer, but it’s a big budget historical epic from an Oscar winning filmmaker, therefore shouldn’t be taken lightly.
Stay tuned for more awards season coverage and our Oscar prediction series over the coming weeks.
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