Awards season is in full force, and it is turning out to be one of the most competitive races in recent years, especially in the acting categories. 2023 has boasted some incredible performances, from transformative portrayals of well known figures, to masterful comedic work, to go-for-broke originality. Without further ado, lets talk about the performances that will likely be competing in each of the four acting categories at the Academy Awards in the next latest installment of our Oscar predictions series. For past installments, see below:
BEST ACTOR
1. Bradley Cooper – Maestro
While overdue narratives don’t always result in Oscar wins (just look at Glenn Close and Amy Adams., there are very few actors who deserve a golden statue to their name more than Bradley Cooper. Nominated 4 times in the acting categories, and 9 times overall, Cooper is undoubtedly one of the greatest talents of his generation. After notoriously losing the Oscar to Rami Malek back in 2018, Cooper returns to the Oscar race with Maestro, which sees him once again competing as an actor, director, screenwriter and producer. While he could earn multiple nominations for his work on the film, he’s most likely to win for his transformative performance as Leonard Bernstein. Some of the older contingent of the Academy knew Bernstein personally, and will be undoubtedly be moved by Cooper’s dedicated portrayal of the illustrious composer. The Best Actor field is crowded this year and critics will likely back another horse, but the industry loves Cooper and it feels like his time. Additionally, there is a strong correlation between the Best Makeup/Hairstyling category and Best Actor, and Maestro is currently the strong frontrunner to win the former.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 4 Nominations (Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle, American Sniper, A Star is Born), 0 Wins
2. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
I have yet to see a performance this year that impresses me as much as Cillian Murphy’s transfixing portrait of Robert J. Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer, Christopher Nolan’s masterwork. Many others seem to share the same sentiment. Murphy is a revelation, commanding the screen for the near-entirety of Oppenheimer’s lengthy 3-hour run time. His extremely passionate performance as Oppenheimer gives him an intensity that makes it one of the most memorable on-screen performances in recent memory. Murphy is an extremely well respected actor, but his resume shines brighter within the world of television thanks to his particularly notable for his work on Peaky Blinders. Cooper has the edge and a stronger career narrative going for him while Leonard Bernstein is certainly viewed far more fondly than Robert J. Oppenheimer. However, it’s certainly a close race. If Oppenheimer continues to be a dominant force throughout awards season and critics’ groups get behind Murphy’s performance, then he could easily pull an upset.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
3. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy and Bradley Cooper both delivered transformative, career-defining performances that are the kind that typically win Oscars, and it’s hard to imagine anyone else in this field putting up a fight against them. However, if we were to entertain the possibility of a wild card in this category that could provide a challenge for the two aforementioned actors, it would be Paul Giamatti. While some may consider him to be a one trick pony, I believe we take for granted Giamatti’s unique on-screen presence and singular dry sense of humor. Giamatti was infamously snubbed for his exceptional work with Alexander Payne on Sideways. The Academy are certainly going to rectify their mistake and nominate Giamatti for his performance as a bitter and old fashioned boarding school teacher in their latest collaboration. While it isn’t necessarily a transformative performance to the same degree as Cooper or Murphy, there is a physicality and mastery of line delivery that Giamatti demonstrates throughout The Holdovers that rivals any of his competitors. The film has cemented itself as a major contender to win a number of prizes throughout awards season, and NBR already awarded Giamatti the Best Actor prize for his work in the film. He is a lock for a nomination, and could enter the winners circle if his performance catches on with critics and guild members.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 1 Nomination (Cinderella Man), 0 Wins
4. Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Despite a storied career in theatre, television, independent film and blockbuster franchises, Jeffrey Wright remains one of the most underrated actors working currently. He earned a number of accolades for his show-stopping performance in Angels in America, and received multiple Emmy nominations for his work on Westworld, but his film work has gone mostly unrecognized. He has delivered a slew of great supporting performances and character work in recent years, and has finally been given a role that allows him to be front and center. After unexpectedly winning over audiences hearts at TIFF and taking home the coveted People’s Choice Award, American Fiction has become an awards season staple this year, and Wright seems to be one of its surefire nominations. While Wright’s performance in American Fiction isn’t necessarily challenging, it’s a role that feels tailor made for him and requires him to seamlessly blend dry humor, sincerity and satire together seamlessly. Additionally, Wright has delivered notable supporting work in other major films this year, such as Asteroid City and Rustin.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
5. Colman Domingo – Rustin
I feel very confident about the four aforementioned actors earning a spot in the Best Actor lineup. Determining who earns the fifth slot is very tricky, and my answer seems to change every day. While most pundits seem to believe Leonardo DiCaprio is an obvious choice to earn a nomination for his performance in Killers of the Flower Moon, all the support for that film seem to be going to his co-stars, and he’s been notably missing at many precursor awards thus far. While this could change as we head further into awards season, I believe that fifth slot will go to another actor. Much like Jeffrey Wright, Colman Domingo is a longtime supporting actor who has finally been given a starring role and is having a banner year in general. While Rustin was not very well received by critics or audiences, and seems to have made absolutely no noise since releasing on Netflix a few weeks ago, the company is still mounting a strong campaign for Domingo and there is a real push to earn him his first Academy Award nomination. His performance as civil rights leader Bayard Rustin is the kind of transformative, showy performance the Academy traditionally love to award. Even though the film isn’t touching any other category besides song, I still believe there will be enough industry support to propel Domingo into the category, despite a competitive field.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
Honourable Mentions
As mentioned, Leonardo DiCaprio is widely expected to earn a nomination for his performance in Killers of the Flower Moon. I could be wrong and there is a strong possibility he earns nominations at every major precursor, but I have a sneaking suspicion that all the support will go to his co-stars, and he’ll be left out of the party. He does deliver a strong performance as potentially the most deplorable character he’s ever played, but it doesn’t stand out as one of his best in his catalogue, and I don’t believe its the most challenging role either.
Andrew Scott is certainly in the running for his subtle, yet devastating performance in All of Us Strangers. The film is perhaps too small to break into major categories, especially one as competitive as Best Actor. However if critics go to bat for Scott, he could slip in at the last minute, similar to his co-star Paul Mescal in Aftersun last year.
The last notable name with a chance at breaking into the Best Actor race is Zac Efron for his performance in The Iron Claw. The film skipped the fall festivals and has not been screened many times, but the critics that have gotten the chance to see it have generally raved about the film and its performances. Efron has worked very hard at shedding his Disney Channel persona by taking on more serious work, and The Iron Claw may finally get him the industry recognition he desperately seeks.
BEST ACTRESS
1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Lily Gladstone was considered the clear frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actress before the film was even screened, due solely to the amount of praise that the cast & crew of Killers of the Flower Moon gave to her. Despite hype that was seemingly impossible to live up to, Gladstone’s performance has resonated deeply with many audiences and critics, making her one of the focal points of awards season this year. When it was announced that Gladstone decided to campaign in Best Actress rather than Supporting Actress, I was worried that she was completely giving up her chances at winning an Oscar. We saw a similar situation last year, where Michelle Williams switched to Best Actress for her performance in The Fabelmans, and it didn’t work in her favour. However, Gladstone is the heart and soul of Killers of the Flower Moon. Regardless of her somewhat limited screen time, every single critics’ group thus far has given Gladstone the award, cementing her as the frontrunner to win Best Actress. She would also make history by being the first indigenous person to win an acting prize at the Oscars.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
2. Emma Stone – Poor Things
Undoubtedly one of the most prolific and acclaimed actresses of her generation, Emma Stone has returned to the spotlight this year with two of her most daring and expertly delivered performances to date in Poor Things and her Showtime series The Curse. After earning her third Academy Award nomination for The Favourite in 2018, Stone reteams with Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things, a gonzo adult fantasy that has earned her career best reviews from critics. While she has already has an Oscar to her name for La La Land and is fairly young to win her second, Stone has defied expectations consistently throughout her career and has what it takes to be one of the youngest actors to earns more than one Academy Award. Poor Things isn’t the typical Oscar contender and its extreme explicit content may turn some academy members off, which could harm Stone’s chances at winning (a-la Leonardo DiCaprio losing Best Actor for The Wolf of Wall Street). However, the younger contingent of the Academy has shown they admire bold, unforgettable performances last year when Everything Everywhere All at Once ran the gambit through the acting categories, so Stone’s performance may be too unforgettable to ignore.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 3 Nominations (Birdman, La La Land, The Favourite), 1 Win (La La Land)
2. Carey Mulligan – Maestro
Much like her co-star, Carey Mulligan is extremely overdue for an Academy Award. She has delivered a slew of impeccable performances that were ignored throughout the 2010s, and just narrowly missed out on winning for Promising Young Woman. Her performance in Maestro, is the kind of emotional, showy, and transformative role that the Academy often like to award. While there is controversy behind Mulligan portraying a Latina woman and she likely won’t be picking up many critics prizes, Maestro will do very well at the industry awards, and will likely give Mulligan a boost leading into the Oscars. Much like Lily Gladstone, there is an argument to be had whether she should be competing in lead or supporting. She has a significant amount of screen time and is top billed, but Cooper’s performance is obviously the focal point of the film and does (literally) overshadow Mulligan’s role.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 2 Nominations (An Education, Promising Young Woman), 0 Wins
4. Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
While Sandra Hüller certainly isn’t a household name outside of Germany, she is having a banner year and gaining worldwide recognition for her performances in The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall. She was the talk of the town at Cannes, and that buzz will continue to ring throughout awards season. Even if she sits out at the Golden Globes and the SAGs, the international contingent of the Academy will give Hüller the support she needs to earn a nomination. Her performance in Anatomy of a Fall is a masterclass in acting, delivering the kind of layered, show-stopping performance that will be studied for years to come. She portrays a complex character who changes her demeanor significantly throughout the film, and she has to speak multiple languages. Critics seem to be putting their full support behind Lily Gladstone, which does slightly hurt Hüller’s chances, as it is the kind of film that needs critic support to earn a nomination. However, NEON are mounting a strong campaign and the film has been doing exceptionally well at precursors thus far.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
5. Margot Robbie – Barbie
It’s difficult to imagine Barbie earning a handful of nominations without Margot Robbie coming along for the ride. While Robbie’s performance in Barbie isn’t necessarily as emotionally challenging or transformative as many of her presumed competition for Best Actress, it’s stellar work that sees Robbie in a role she was absolutely born to play. The film allows her to flex her comedic skills, while also delivering a sincere and emotional performance that gives depth to the character and re-contextualizes the meaning of “Barbie”. While some pundits are bringing up the fact that Tom Cruise failed to earn a nomination despite being the face of Top Gun: Maverick, a similar box-office driven contender, I’d argue that there is far more depth and nuance to Robbie’s performance and the film in general. If Barbie really has a shot at winning Best Picture, there is no reason Margot Robbie would be left out.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 2 Nominations (I, Tonya, Bombshell), 0 Wins
Honourable Mentions
The Color Purple has established itself as a major awards contender. While most of the buzz is concentrated behind Danielle Brooks in Best Supporting Actress race, critics have also praised Fantasia Barrino’s work in the leading role and it certainly wouldn’t be surprising if she kicked Margot Robbie or Sandra Hüller out and took the last slot in Best Actress.
Cailee Spaeny is a newcomer who doesn’t have many credits to her name, but she has gained a lot of praise for her subtle and extremely realistic performance as Priscilla Presley in Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla. The film has received a fairly large profile and A24 are concentrating the campaign behind Spaeny’s performance. Speaking of A24, Past Lives is likely their biggest contender this season. While Greta Lee is certainly not locked in for a nomination the way she seemed to be earlier in the year, her performance has gained her a lot of critical praise and she could potentially sneak into the Best Actress lineup.
While Nyad received generally negative buzz from critics, I have a feeling the industry will eat it up and Annette Benning‘s over-the-top performance could earn her nominations at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. Natalie Portman, meanwhile, is another big name looking to squeeze into the crowded Best Actress race. While the profile of May December is rising significantly and is looking possible to earn a Best Picture nomination, most of the buzz in the acting categories has solely been behind Charles Melton’s performance.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
After dedicating over a decade of his storied career to being the face of the MCU, Robert Downey Jr. has entered a new phase of his career and is taking roles that challenge him and remind audiences of his versatility as an actor. His transformative portrayal of the conniving and jealous Lewis Strauss in Oppenheimer has turned many heads and is the perfect opportunity to award RDJ for his storied career and contributions to the industry. While his section of the film is the one part that has divided critics, there’s enough passion for his performance to earn him a win in this category. He’s also one of the most likeable and charismatic personalities within the industry, gaining a similar level respect to Tom Cruise and George Clooney. Audiences, critics and the industry all deeply respect RDJ and it would be an unforgettable moment to finally watch him walk on stage to accept an Oscar.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 2 Nominations (Chaplin, Tropic Thunder), 0 Wins
2. Ryan Gosling – Barbie
The Barbenheimer battle will come to a head in this category, as Ryan Gosling is also competing for his hilarious turn as Ken in Barbie. The Academy don’t often award comedic performances, but Gosling’s performance is so committed and unique that it’s almost impossible to ignore. It’s the kind of screwball, physically comedic performance that we rarely see on screen anymore, and it’s certainly one of Gosling’s most iconic roles to date. Gosling has earned two previous nominations, and has been the face of a number of Oscar contenders over the years. While I do believe RDJ’s narrative makes him a no brainer to win, Gosling has a shot at winning some precursor awards along the way and will certainly provide somewhat of a challenge for RDJ.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 2 Nominations (Half Nelson, La La Land), 0 Wins
3. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Speaking of dramatic actors taking on comedic performances, Mark Ruffalo’s performance in Poor Things is similarly ambitious and unconventional. Much like his MCU co-star Robert Downey Jr., Ruffalo is an extremely well respected actor who has proven himself in both independent and mainstream cinema. While he doesn’t have quite as strong of an overdue narrative as RDJ, Ruffalo has given a slew of great performances over the years and easily deserves to win an Oscar at some point in his career. If Poor Things starts to emerge a frontrunner for Best Picture, Ruffalo’s standout performance could come along with it. He’s also famously very good friends with RDJ, so it would an interesting dynamic if they fiercely compete to win this award.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 3 Nominations (The Kids Are All Right, Foxcatcher, Spotlight), 0 Wins
4. Charles Melton – May December
There are a lot of potential contenders that could fill this fifth slot, but my bet is on newcomer Charles Melton for his disturbing and layered performance as a struggling man whose life was stripped away from him as a child in May December. Melton seems to have captured the hearts of critics this season, winning Best Supporting Actor consistently at precursor awards. His narrative as a former-Riverdale star turned artistically inclined actor is very compelling and he’ll have a lot of passion and support from the film community at large this season.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
5. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert De Niro is undoubtedly one of the most recognizable and respected actors of all time. Already having won two Oscars, no one would make an argument if De Niro joined the rare 3 Oscar wins club. Despite his age, his performance in Killers of the Flower Moon is arguably one of his most terrifying performances yet. William King Hale a challenging role that allows him to play a restrained, yet savage and ruthless antagonist driven by greed and money. While he likely won’t be in the winning conversation, I think De Niro deserves to earn himself his 9th Academy Award nomination. Most of the buzz around Killers of the Flower Moon is concentrated around Lily Gladstone, but De Niro’s work is so strong that I’d be shocked if he didn’t come along for the ride.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 8 Nominations (The Godfather Pt. 2, Taxi Driver, The Deer Hunter, Raging Bull, Awakenings, Cape Fear, Silver Linings Playbook, The Irishman), 2 Wins (The Godfather Pt. 2, Raging Bull)
Honourable Mentions
The Supporting Actor category is extremely competitive and there are a number of actors that have a shot at sneaking into the lineup. Sterling K. Brown is the most notable name and I had a difficult time leaving him out of my predictions. Brown has had a lot of awards success at the Emmys for his performances in American Crime Story: The People vs. OJ Simpson and This is Us. While he has focused mainly on television, he is beginning to transition into a full blown movie star. His performance in American Fiction is charismatic and memorable, having great comedic and dramatic chemistry with Jeffrey Wright.
While Colman Domingo is competing to earn a nomination in Best Lead Actor for his performance in Rustin, there is a chance he is double nominated for his supporting performance in The Color Purple. Speaking of double nominations, Poor Things has a shot at being represented by two actors in this category. While Mark Ruffalo is clearly delivers the standout supporting performance, Willem Dafoe’s performance as Bella Baxter’s mad scientist father could earn him a nomination as well.
Glenn Howerton’s showy and hilarious performance in BlackBerry has a fair amount of critical support. While he’s definitely a long shot, the passion surrounding his performance shouldn’t be ignored. And despite being a newcomer, Dominic Sessa brings a lot of heart to The Holdovers, and could potentially be nominated alongside his co-stars, who are both top contenders in their respective categories.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
Unlike the other three acting categories, Best Supporting Actress is a generally weak field this year. Since Lily Gladstone announced she would be campaigning in lead actress, many pundits have been confused as to who would replace her as the frontrunner to win. While Da’Vine Joy Randolph occupied that slot for a while, a potential new frontrunner has emerged. The Color Purple premiered to generally positive reviews and unanimous praise for the performances, especially Danielle Brooks for her role as Sophia. This same role earned Brooks a Tony nomination in 2016, and her on-screen performance is likely to once again earn her many accolades. She’s a relatively new actress who is known primarily for her work in television and on Broadway. She doesn’t have a narrative going for her, but the performance seems to speak volumes on its own and is the type of showy work the Academy love to honour.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
2. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Brooks biggest competition is Da’Vine Joy Randolph for her warm and emotionally effective performance in The Holdovers. Similar to Brooks, Randolph is a relatively new actress who has been garnering attention in the realm of television for her work in Empire and Only Murders in the Building. That being said, Randolph is the emotional core of The Holdovers, and many audience members have walked away from the film being deeply moved by her work. While it’s not quite as showy as Brooks’ role, she is sweeping the critics awards. If The Holdovers ends up being a top contender to win Best Picture, she could certainly give Brooks a run for her money.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
3. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
It is shocking to remember that Emily Blunt has not yet earned an Oscar nomination, despite being an incredibly well respected actress and A-list star that has been around for almost two decades. While there are many people who have expressed to be underwhelmed by Blunt’s work in Oppenheimer, outside of her show-stopping scene in the third act, the film is such a strong player across the board that I would be shocked if Blunt didn’t come along for the ride, especially considering how strong her overdue narrative is.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 0 Nominations
4. Jodie Foster – Nyad
While Nyad has received a mixed-to-negative reception since premiering on Netflix, Jodie Foster’s performance has been the one element of the film that everyone can agree is exceptional. She completely outshines her co-star, Annette Bening, delivering a strong, warm and deeply moving performance, showcasing the true depths of friendship. Foster is a two time Academy Award winner, and this performance will likely get her back into the Oscar race, after narrowly missing a nomination for her performance in The Mauritanian just a few years ago.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 4 Nominations (Taxi Driver, The Accused, The Silence of the Lambs, Nell), 2 Wins (The Accused, The Silence of the Lambs)
5. Julianne Moore – May December
When I first watched May December at the Cannes Film Festival, I had a difficult time imagining the Academy touching Julianne Moore’s bizarre and disturbing performance with a ten foot pole. Moore portrays a woman who in her mid-30s, cheated on her husband with a seventh grader, and ended up marrying him. She portrays the character in an odd and almost tabloid-esque fashion that suits the tone of the film, but could be off putting for some. That being said, Moore is one of the most acclaimed actresses of her generation and her storied collaborative relationship with director Todd Haynes has earned her respect from the Academy in the past. With May December on the rise as a serious contender, Moore has a strong chance at swooping in and earning a nomination.
PREVIOUS OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR ACTING: 5 Nominations (Boogie Nights, The End of the Affair, Far From Heaven, The Hours, Still Alice), 1 Win (Still Alice)
Honourable Mentions
Speaking of actresses the Academy really respect, we should not ignore the possibility of Penelope Cruz earning a nomination for Ferrari. The film received mixed reviews and many don’t consider it to be one of Michael Mann’s better films. However, her performance has unanimously received praise, as everyone agrees she steals the show from her co-star, Adam Driver. It’s the kind of high profile, yet critically disappointing film that earns one or two nominations, despite not being nearly as big of a contender as many expected at the start of the season.
The Color Purple is on the rise as one of the year’s biggest awards contenders. While most of the hype is centered around Danielle Brooks, her co-star Taraji P. Henson is a much bigger name and has earned an Academy Award nomination in the past. The Color Purple is a strong enough contender to earn two of its actors nominations in this category.
While the film was released at the beginning of the year and wasn’t viewed as an awards contender, many critics were touched by Rachel McAdams performance in the Judy Blume adaptation Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret. McAdams has been earning nominations consistently at critics groups, and the film does seem somewhat likely to earn an Adapted Screenplay nomination.
Going into Barbie, all the awards hype was concentrated on Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling, but America Ferrera ended up being a scene stealer, and one of the focal points of the film. Her performance has resonated with audiences and she’s had a great year, between Barbie and Dumb Money. She seems to be on the outside looking in currently, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Globes and the SAGs raise her profile.
Saltburn generally received extremely mixed reception from critics, with some finding it to be vapid and obnoxious, while others found it riveting and deliciously entertaining. The film is certainly not an awards contender, but Rosamund Pike could potentially sneak into the Best Supporting Actress lineup. Lastly, we can’t count out Viola Davis, who was a scene stealer in Air.
Stay tuned for more awards season coverage and our Oscar prediction series over the coming weeks.
still courtesy of Searchlight Pictures
Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter or Instagram or like us on Facebook.
You must be logged in to post a comment.