The dust has settled from this month’s announcement of the nominations for the upcoming Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, helping to shed further light on this year’s Oscar lineup. However, this year has proven to be very difficult for pundits to predict, as it has produced a slew of contenders, all with a realistic shot at earning a nomination. Now that 2024 is coming to an end, let’s take a look at how the Best Picture race is shaping up as we head into the new year.
Anora was declared the early frontrunner as soon as it won the coveted Palme d’Or at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. Writer/director Sean Baker has been a beloved figure within the film community for years, and this feels like the perfect opportunity to celebrate his contributions to the art form. It’s pretty clear he’s a strong frontrunner in the Best Original Screenplay race, but the film has quite a bit of competition in Best Picture. It has performed very well at precursors thus far, with L.A., Boston, Michigan, and Atlanta Film Critic Associations, as well as a slew of others, naming it the Best Film of the year. Anora has also been consistently placing high on year end lists from major publications, and has not missed on any key nominations at the Critics’ Choice Awards or the Golden Globes. NEON has been mounting an excellent campaign for it, with Sean Baker and its cast working on the press junket scene to sell the film. Though it has done quite well financially, the film has yet to break into the cultural zeitgeist in the way I hoped it would. Many have expressed worries that it doesn’t have a strong winning package, but I disagree. Star Mikey Madison looks to be a frontrunner in the Best Actress race, and the screenplay is essentially a done deal.
That being said, The Brutalist is quickly closing the gap. The New York Film Critics Circle awarded the film its top prize, and many more higher-profile critics associations such as The Chicago Film Critics Association have followed suit. Many were worried that its late release date may hurt it, especially since A24 is being stingy with their screener copies in order to maximize its allure and making sure award voters and critics know this the film is a true theatrical experience. However, this strategy may actually work in its favour, as it has already built up considerable buzz following its film festival run and that excitement has only continued now that the film is finally making its way into theatres. The cast and co-writer/director Brady Corbet are starting to make the rounds and campaign for the film (although not as relentlessly as the Anora team). The major narrative surrounding the film was how it was miraculously made for under $10 million despite being an epic on a scale we rarely ever see is insanely impressive and will likely persuade voters, especially for Corbet in the Best Director race. With Corbet in the lead for Best Director, and star Adrien Brody looking like a frontrunner for Best Actor, as well as strong likelihood to potentially wins Best Original Score and Best Cinematography, The Brutalist is shaping up to be fierce competitor.
With Anora and The Brutalist occupying an artsier space, many pundits have been searching for a more mainstream alternative that may be able to challenge those two juggernauts. Some have landed on Edward Berger’s Conclave, a old fashioned drama that on paper would be mockingly be labeled as “stuffy” and “Oscar bait” by younger pundits, but has completely avoided those monikers due to Berger’s newer filmmaking sensibilities and a juicy script. Despite its serious subject matter, he has fun with the material, delivering an entertaining and thrilling commentary on religion, ethics, and elections, themes that were particularly relevant this year. Conclave is the kind of film that is difficult not to appreciate and in a year with quite a few films that voters find divisive, it will benefit as it is not likely to be on the lower end of many preferential ballots. By that same token, it’s also not garnering the kind of passion that some of its competition have been. However, it has significantly exceeded box office expectations and tied Wicked with the most nominations at the Critics’ Choice awards.
It also could realistically beat The Brutalist for Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes and if that happens, we will have to start talking about Conclave as a more serious threat to win Best Picture. Though at the moment, it lacks a clear winning package. It’s looking likely to win Best Adapted Screenplay, unless the Sing Sing campaign gets its act together, but it’s not in the winning conversation for many other categories, despite a potentially high nomination tally. I suppose Best Original Score is in reach, and there’s a world where Ralph Fiennes can win based on his criminally overdue narrative alone, but he also has some steep competition. While the Conclave marketing campaign has been stellar, allowing the film to soar at the box office, the team hasn’t been awards campaigning nearly as much as its competition. Edward Berger and star Isabella Rossellini have been making the rounds to a degree, but Fiennes hasn’t really made any major appearances and is noticeably absent from all the usual campaign stops be it roundtables, Q&A sessions, etc.
In any other year, having two musicals as top contenders seems improbable, as one would often overshadow the other, but Wicked and Emilia Pérez have found a way to simultaneously thrive, with two separate fan bases, partly thanks to Selena Gomez and Ariana Grande’s star-power and cult-like fanbases. Wicked is undeniably the biggest hit of the year, and one that has surpassed expectations both critically and at the box office, emerging as one of the strongest contenders this awards season. With almost guaranteed wins in craft categories like Best Costume Design and by far the loudest awards campaign this season, it has a chance to go all the way, especially if Ariana Grande manages to dethrone presumed early front-runner Zoe Saldaña for Best Supporting Actress.
Speaking of Saldaña, Emilia Pérez has found itself in an interesting position this awards season. Following its flashy premiere at this year’s Cannes Film Festival, the film was immediately propelled into the awards conversation. Especially after the Cannes jury broke their own rules and awarded the Best Actress prize its three female stars, rather than singling one member out in favor of any of the others. While Emilia Pérez has continued to charm European audiences, North American critic reactions have been quite the opposite with the film receiving an overtly negative response as many queer critics have expressed concerns that the film is a misguided exploration of trans themes.
Despite the strong and viral backlash, and critics groups largely ignoring the film in most categories, Emilia Pérez became one of the most nominated films at the Golden Globes in the history of the organization, earning 10 nominations overall. This feat cannot be ignored and it is clear that the film has more industry support than some may want to admit. The film will likely dominate the Best Original Song category, with its two submissions “El Mal” and “Mi Camino” duking it out for front runner status, much like Barbie did in this category last year. However, outside of Saldaña possibly winning Supporting Actress, the film is rapidly losing steam in most other categories.
The top 5 contenders seem locked, all having a hypothetical shot at winning Best Picture, but from here on out things get shaky. There are currently 6 films looking to fill the remaining 5 spots, with a few dark horses waiting in the wings. Out of these bottom half contenders, Dune: Part II seems to be the safest bet to earn a nomination. Its predecessor was an awards juggernaut, and despite missing a key Best Director nomination, it took home 5 awards in the below the line categories. Considered just as, if not better than the original, the sequel was a much bigger box office success, building more interest in the franchise. Despite the widespread praise the film received upon release, its early release date has hindered its awards chances, with many precursors seeming to favour more recent releases. While it will pick up many of the same nominations the first film received, it will likely miss Best Director again and could even miss Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s only looking likely to win two awards: Best Visual Effects and Best Sound.
The strong showing for The Substance on Golden Globe nomination day threw many pundits off. While the film is undeniably one of the most acclaimed films of the year, body horror isn’t exactly a genre that is the most marketable, and it’s never been taken seriously by the Academy, outside of the odd makeup nomination. However, it continues to beat the odds. It received a rapturous response at Cannes, winning Best Screenplay. After a strong fall festival run, the enthusiasm the film has built up had translated to a very impressive box office performance. The way the film ferociously tackles absurd beauty standards in Hollywood and ageism has really resonated with audiences, especially women. Its themes are helping it break genre barriers and it’s being taken seriously by those who don’t usually embrace horror. While it’s difficult to call the film a lock, especially considering a weak turnout with the Oscar shortlists, I’m cautiously optimistic The Substance will prevail – especially with Demi Moore being a strong presence on the campaign trail this awards season.
Nickel Boys hasn’t made its way into theatres beyond New York City and Los Angeles, but critics have deemed the film one of the best movies of the year, with many calling it a monumental cinematic achievement. The film’s experimental approach could turn some voters off, but that didn’t stop The Zone of Interest from earning a Best Picture nomination. Similarly, Nickel Boys tackles serious and important subject matter in an unconventional fashion. The film hasn’t been overwhelmingly embraced at precursors, but has earned key nominations that suggest it having a great shot at breaking into the Best Picture field.
At the beginning of the year, many were predicting that Sing Sing had what it takes to go all the way. The film earned a rapturous response at last year’s Toronto International Film Festival, won the audience prize at this year’s SXSW Film Festival, and was picked up by A24. Not only is it an emotionally resonant film tackling relevant subject matter, it is right up the Academy’s alley. For whatever reason, A24 dropped the ball on marketing the film upon release, resulting in a poor box office performance and an early exit from theatres. While its cast has been heavily campaigning this season to ensure it gets back into the conversation, that clearly wasn’t enough for the Golden Globes who snubbed it in every category except Best Actor for Colman Domingo. While its poor Golden Globes performance is definitely concerning, the film has had a strong presence at most other precursors. I reckon the Screen Actors Guild Awards will follow suit and award Sing Sing a slew of nominations, including a possible win for Best Ensemble. While it certainly has fallen in the rankings, I still feel the film has what it takes to earn a Best Picture nomination, despite A24 not providing it a proper campaign.
I believe the final spot will be awarded to a Searchlight Pictures film – but which one is the question. On one hand we have A Real Pain, a critically beloved indie that earned praise out of this year’s Sundance Film Festival. The film’s depiction of generational trauma, Judaism, and family dynamics has really resonated with audiences. Kieran Culkin looks like the frontrunner to win Best Supporting Actor at the moment, as he’s been sweeping critics groups and working hard on the campaign circuit. The film is also a lock to earn a nomination in Best Original Screenplay for Jessie Eisenberg’s deeply authentic script.
The other film Searchlight is handling this year is A Complete Unknown, a Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothee Chalamet. A late breaker into awards season, one whose release was announced to be this year only a few months ago. Rumours were that the film received mediocre test reactions where so many dismissed the film as solely an acting player. However, the film has done well with precursors, and is on its way to becoming a box office success. In addition, Chalamet has mounted an impressive awards campaign, making appearances on every show imaginable. While it’s a tough call, as both could realistically win an acting prize, A Complete Unknown seems the likelier contender for a Best Picture nomination. It has consistently shown up at precursors, while A Real Pain hasn’t done well with critics groups outside of Culkin. Despite strong reviews and a great narrative, A Real Pain may struggle to break into this crowded field.
Meanwhile, there are a few other films that could surprise with a Best Picture nomination. Challengers is easily one of the most beloved movies of the year and realistically could earn several key nominations: Best Original Screenplay, Best Editing, Best Original Score and Best Original Song. It also earned a Best Picture – Musical or Comedy nomination at the Golden Globes. The film, however, failed to make it into the Critics’ Choice awards lineup, something which seemed like a shoe-in, and hasn’t been discussed enough as a serious Oscar contender. September 5 also earned a Best Picture nomination at the Globes, and has been semi-consistently picking up Original Screenplay and Editing nominations at precursors. The film seemingly came out of nowhere and is currently playing in very few theatres before expanding early next year, and it isn’t as widely beloved as most of the other top contenders for Best Picture so it would be shocking if it did make it into the lineup.
As it stands, here are our official predictions for Best Picture:
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Wicked
- Emilia Pérez
- Dune: Part II
- A Complete Unknown
- The Substance
- Sing Sing
- Nickel Boys
Follow along with the rest of our awards season coverage as we head into the new year and to the 97th Academy Awards taking place Sunday, March 2nd, 2025.
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