In my ten years of predicting and closely paying attention to the Golden Globes, I can’t remember a year quite as unpredictable as this year. Almost every category seems to be completely up in the air. With the Globes considerably expanding their membership and becoming more international focused, what pundits knew about the HFPA’s voting patterns is irrelevant now, and it’s very challenging to predict the mindset of this new voting body, especially in a year as competitive as this year. I’m going to do my best to go through each of the film categories and predict what I believe will win, as well as what I’m personally rooting for.
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)
The race is clearly between Conclave (Focus Features) and The Brutalist (A24). Two films that seem like they have an equal shot to win this award. Brady Corbet’s masterful epic is an exploration of immigration and the false promise of the American dream. Upon premiering at Venice, the film instantly became a top awards contender, and now it’s finally starting to open theatrically nationwide, with select 70mm screenings. With Brady Corbet and Adrien Brody leading as frontrunners for Best Director and Best Actor (Drama), respectively, it feels inevitable that The Brutalist will also claim the top prize in the drama category. Timing is in the film’s favor, and the team has done a fantastic job campaigning on the film’s behalf and selling how difficult of an achievement the film was to make. While some worry its gargantuan runtime and dense material might alienate voters, the Globes do on occasion recognize ambitious, artistic dramas that may be slightly colder and more intellectual in nature (The Power of the Dog being a prime example). The film earned seven nominations, making it the second most nominated film of the year behind Emilia Pérez. On the other hand, Conclave, with six nominations, has also performed very well. Though it missed a nomination for Stanley Tucci in Supporting Actor, it got everything else that was expected. Handsomely directed, the film’s Vatican election storyline mirrors the election that just concluded. Conclave exceeded box office expectations and is widely liked, though it hasn’t sparked the same passion as The Brutalist. While Conclave is a safer, universally palatable choice, it lacks the groundbreaking nature of The Brutalist. Ultimately, the scale, ambition, and critical acclaim for The Brutalist will help it prevail and establish it as a serious threat to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)
This is a tight three-way race between Adrien Brody in The Brutalist, Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown and Ralph Fiennes in Conclave. Adrien Brody delivers potentially the performance of the year according to many critics. His role in The Brutalist is incredibly demanding, requiring him to dig deep and pour so much of himself into the character. It’s such a staggering achievement that it feels like it would be criminal to not award it. However, Timothée Chalamet is coming on strong and could give Adrien a run for his money. Chalamet delivers a committed transformation into the role of Bob Dylan, capturing his mannerisms, singing style, and voice to a tee. This is no caricature either—it’s a deeply nuanced and transformative performance. Chalamet, arguably the leading star of his generation, is having a moment with A Complete Unknown and Dune: Part II, bolstered by a highly visible and successful press tour. While it feels like he could win at least one major precursor award this season (likely SAG), Brody may still edge him out here. Ralph Fiennes, portraying Cardinal Lawrence in Conclave, brings subtlety and gravitas to his performance. While he has the “overdue” narrative in his favor, his role lacks the overt difficulty and transformative elements of Brody’s and Chalamet’s work. That said, a Conclave sweep could make him a surprise winner. Colman Domingo is the only other contender with an outside shot, but the underperformance of Sing Sing in key categories makes his chances slim. Plus, he’s got a major role in the upcoming Michael Jackson biopic on the horizon, as well as many other exciting projects, so his time will come soon enough. Ultimately, while Chalamet’s star power makes him a formidable contender, Brody’s raw, deeply personal portrayal in The Brutalist feels like the one to beat, and I think he will prevail here.
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)
This seems far more baron in comparison, with all the top contenders for Best Actress at the Oscars competing in the Comedy/Musical category. This leaves us with a group of fringe contenders who are competing for that fifth spot at the Oscars. Whoever wins this award, will likely determine who has the best chance at squeezing into the competitive Best Actress Oscar race. Angelina Jolie for Maria and Nicole Kidman for Babygirl seem like the most logical choices. Both have had a strong presence on the campaign trail and they’re A-list actresses who both are taking on daring roles. However, both are lone nominees for their films. Babygirl is an erotic thriller that is popular and well liked, but it’s not the type of performance that usually draws awards attention. She could win off of name recognition, and some critics have cited it as one of her best performances, but the fact that it missed out on a key Critics Choice Awards nomination shows that it’s not as strong of a contender as we may think. Maria on the other hand hasn’t garnered the same critical enthusiasm as Pablo Larrain’s previous films, Jackie and Spencer. Jolie’s performance is considered to be the weakest of the three as well, and neither Natalie Portman or Kristen Stewart won this award. Jolie also missed the BAFTA longlist, which is an indicator that the performance isn’t blowing people away in the way many expected it to.
That leaves Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl and Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here, both for films that earned a nomination in another category. Anderson is an actress who has been exploited her entire career and never got the opportunity to take on a role where she wasn’t viewed as an object. The Last Showgirl is an incredibly personal project for Anderson and reveals that she is a very capable dramatic actress, delivering a heartbreaking performance that mirrors her own life. Fernanda Torres also has a realistic chance at taking home this award, as her work in I’m Still Here is one of the most acclaimed performances of the year. She isn’t well known in North America, but due to the fact that there’s a huge international contingent of the voting body, many of whom are from Brazil, she could edge out her bigger name opponents, especially if they’re splitting votes. However, I think I’m going to stick with Anderson. It’s really a toss up, but her career narrative and the sensitivity she brings to that role could really resonate with voters. They also went out of their way to nominate The Last Showgirl in Original Song, so it’s clear there’s support for the film.
BEST MOTION PICTURE (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
This is an even tighter race than its drama counterpart. Anora is the presumed frontrunner for Best Picture at the Oscars. It’s been performing incredibly well all season since winning the coveted Palme d’Or at Cannes. It’s topping many year end lists and is sweeping the critics groups, with its only real competition being Nickel Boys and The Brutalist. I’m predicting it to ultimately win Best Picture at the Oscars, but the Globes often march to the beat of their own drum and this is a competitive category so it’s smart to weigh other options. Wicked is the cultural phenomenon of the year and has been gaining steam at the right moment. However, I look back to Poor Things beating Barbie or Banshees of Inisherin beating Everything Everywhere All at Once and sense that the new voting body is less likely to award a popcorn flick. Wicked also only received four nominations, which seems measly compared to the ten nominations that Emilia Perez received, almost beating the all-time record of 11 (Nashville). Emilia Perez is the most controversial awards contender in many years and the social media backlash has seemed to bring its momentum to a halt, but the industry awards are showering it with support. Outside of the Globes, it was shortlisted in almost every category at the BAFTAs. While I don’t believe the film will ultimately win Best Picture at the Oscars, international voters seem to absolutely love the film, as indicated by the number of nominations it received here. It does have a good chance at walking away with this award. However, I’m choosing not to read too much into the nomination count, and I’m going to predict Anora wins the award.
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
This is a competitive category, as all the top Oscar contenders for Best Actress are lumped into this group. Mikey Madison’s incredible performance in Anora is capturing the hearts of many and has quickly turned her into this year’s breakthrough star. Although it’s rare to see an actor win so early into their career (especially in the lead categories), Madison’s performance and the film itself are so beloved that she could steamroll through this season and sweet every award. She’s been doing an amazing job campaigning, but so has Demi Moore for The Substance. Moore is a veteran actress who was one of the biggest stars of the 1990s. Although she’s been involved in awards fare before in films like A Few Good Men and Ghost, she was never given a role that truly allowed her to shine as an actress. The Substance is a completely unconventional and daring performance, and it’s clear the industry is really excited about her comeback. It’s a great narrative in a film that is clearly one of the most beloved of the year. Karla Sofia Gascon made history as the first trans actress to earn a Golden Globe nomination in any of the film categories. Emilia Perez is clearly beloved by the voting base, but much of the awards hype for that film has been around Saldana, rather than Gascon. Cynthia Erivo also has a shot at winning this award for Wicked, but similarly to Emilia Perez, Ariana Grande has been stealing much of her thunder. I’m predicting Madison will win this award, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Moore pulls an upset.
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL/COMEDY)
This is interesting as all of the top Oscar contenders for Best Actor are competing in the drama category. Sebastian Stan is double nominated this year and has been getting a lot of press this awards season. Many voters may see his name on the ballot and vote for him as a way to honor his contributions to cinema in 2024. While his performance in A Different Man is fantastic, The Apprentice is the bigger role and the more widely seen film, so it would be strange to see him win for this film instead. Then there’s Jesse Eisenberg, who is the only actor in this category in a film that got a Best Motion Picture nomination. However, as great as he is in A Real Pain, Kieran Culkin is the clear standout, and Eisenberg has been campaigning more as a writer/director than on behalf of his performance. Glen Powell had a huge year between starring in Twisters and Hit Man. He’s nominated for the latter, a fun film that he co-wrote with Richard Linklater. It’s a juicy comedic performance that shows lots of versatility, and it’s the kind of movie star role that Globes may be drawn to. However, my money is on the biggest star nominated in this category, Hugh Grant for his work in Heretic. While the film didn’t do as well financially as I thought it would, Hugh Grant is clearly having a moment right now and his villainous performance has earned him nominations at the Critics Choice Awards, as well as other critics groups. It’s a fun and baity performance, he’s been nominated 7 times at the Golden Globes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if many voters wanted to award his second win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is clearly going to Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain. He has been sweeping critics groups and is very active on the campaign trail. Guy Pearce is likely his biggest competition for The Brutalist, but he hasn’t been getting nearly as much press and it’s a much colder role that’s more difficult to get behind.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is a tight race between Ariana Grande in Wicked and Zoe Saldana in Emilia Perez. They’re currently tied with precursor wins, but now that Wicked fever is starting to die down, I think Saldana is going to take the lead, especially considering how much the Globes obviously loved Emilia Perez. She’s also a massive name within the world of film and has been proving herself for over a decade. Many voters may feel that it’s her time.
BEST DIRECTOR
This will likely go to Brady Corbet for The Brutalist. The Globes often award the biggest achievement in this category, and The Brutalist stands tall as the most gargantuan film in the lineup.
BEST SCREENPLAY
This is between Conclave and Anora. I’m 50/50 on this one – while this is a great opportunity for voters to honor Sean Baker, I also feel like Conclave has to win something major and it is more in line with the film’s that typically win in this category. It’s a tough call, but I’m going to lean Conclave.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
This is an easy win for Emilia Perez. While Mi Camino and El Mal have a shot at winning, the latter is more of a standout moment in the film and seems to be the more popular song. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Mi Camino won as a way to honour Selena Gomez.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
This is far more competitive, as almost every nominee has a realistic shot at winning. Challengers, Conclave and The Brutalist seem like they’re generating the most buzz for their scores. I’m going to stick with The Brutalist, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Conclave took home this award.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE and BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
These categories are done deals at this point, as Emilia Perez and The Wild Robot will almost certainly walk away with these awards. If there is an upset, I can see a world where Flow takes Best Animated Feature.
Here are my final Golden Globe predictions in each category:
BEST MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA): The Brutalist
BEST MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL): Anora
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA): Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA): Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl)
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL): Hugh Grant (Heretic)
BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL): Mikey Madison (Anora)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Zoe Saldana (Emilia Perez)
BEST DIRECTOR: Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
BEST SCREENPLAY: Conclave
BEST NON-ENGLISH LANGUAGE FILM: Emilia Perez
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: The Wild Robot
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: El Ma – Emilia Perez
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: The Brutalist
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