Now that we’ve entered 2026, it’s tempting to look ahead to the films the new year will bring. But before we do, there’s still plenty of awards season left to unfold. We’re in the thick of a busy stretch where many categories are beginning to take shape, yet several races remain wide open, keeping this year’s awards season especially competitive and exciting to watch.
One race that isn’t competitive, however, is Best Picture. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has completely dominated the season, winning the top prize at the vast majority of awards ceremonies and critics circles. Yesterday, it became just the fourth film ever to sweep the major critics’ trifecta after Schindler’s List, L.A. Confidential, and The Social Network, by winning the National Society of Film Critics, alongside earlier victories at the National Board of Review, New York Film Critics Circle, and Los Angeles Film Critics Association. Beyond those wins, the film has also taken home top honors from numerous other critics groups, cementing its status as the clear frontrunner. The National Society of Film Critics also awarded One Battle After Another with Best Director for Paul Thomas Anderson, Best Supporting Actress for Teyana Taylor, and Best Supporting Actor for Benicio del Toro, who is so far continuing his clean sweep and may have unexpectedly cemented himself as the frontrunner for the Oscar over co-star Sean Penn.
Best Actor, however, did not go to Leonardo DiCaprio, who wasn’t even listed as a runner-up. Timothée Chalamet was also absent, despite making waves this season and positioning himself as a potential Oscar frontrunner for Marty Supreme. Instead, the award went to Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, a win that could signal a quiet upset and the beginning of some late-breaking momentum. Best Actress, meanwhile, went to a completely unexpected name: Kathleen Chalfant for Familiar Touch. While she has already earned nominations at the Independent Spirit Awards and the Gotham Awards, her victory here, over several heavyweight contenders, was certainly surprising. Another surprise was Best Screenplay, which went to It Was Just An Accident over One Battle After Another, although the former lost out Best International Film to The Secret Agent. Best Non-Fiction Film went to My Undesirable Friends Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow, which continues to dominate in the documentary categories.
Unlike the National Society of Film Critics, the Critics Choice Awards are typically fairly easy to predict and tend to offer few surprises. They function more as a temperature check on where awards season currently stands, and while there is often significant crossover with the Oscars, plenty can still shift between now and then. One thing that seems unlikely to change, however, is the dominance of One Battle After Another. The film has been steamrolling the season, which increasingly feels like a long-overdue coronation for Paul Thomas Anderson, who is poised to take home Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay at nearly every ceremony where he’s nominated.
Other major players expected to begin, or further solidify, their runs at the Critics Choice Awards include Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme, Amy Madigan for Weapons, and Jesse Buckley for Hamnet. Below is my full list of Critics Choice Awards predictions.
BEST PICTURE: One Battle After Another
BEST DIRECTOR: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
BEST ACTOR: Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
BEST ACTRESS: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
BEST ENSEMBLE: Sinners
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Sinners
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: One Battle After Another
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: It Was Just An Accident
BEST ANIMATED FILM: K-Pop Demon Hunters
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Sinners
BEST EDITING: One Battle After Another
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: Frankenstein
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Frankenstein
BEST HAIR & MAKEUP: Frankenstein
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: Fire & Ash
BEST SOUND: F1
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Marty Supreme
BEST SONG: I Lied to You (Sinners)
BEST STUNT DESIGN: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
BEST YOUNG PERFORMER: Miles Caton (Sinners)
BEST COMEDY: The Naked Gun
Stay tuned to keithlovesmovies for the latest Awards Season news and analysis, leading up to the 98th Academy Awards on March 15th, 2026.
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