The four major fall film festivals have all come to a close, which means awards season has officially commenced. While there are still a number of heavy hitters that could realistically crash the party later in the season (Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, and Avatar: The Way of Water to name a few), we now have a much a clearer idea of which films will likely be competing for the top prizes at the 95th Annual Academy Awards. Within the coming weeks, we will break down the races in all the major categories. For now, let’s start with Best Picture.
Even after the major fall festivals have concluded and the majority of heavyweight contenders have been screened in front of a public audience, I still strongly believe that The Daniels’ multidimensional masterpiece will inevitably take home the top prize at the end of the season. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a rare example of a film that broke into the cultural zeitgeist and became one of the year’s most popular films, while simultaneously attaining widespread critical acclaim. It has already cemented itself as a modern classic. The film offers a zany, ridiculously creative adventure like no other, complete with top notch world building, laugh out loud humor, and a genuinely impactful third act, that has resonated emotionally with audiences. The film was nominated for Best Feature at the Gotham Awards, and while that awards body seems to be backing TÁR, it is still off to a very strong start (especially considering Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan have a good shot at taking home the Gotham Awards in their respective categories).
The biggest competition for Everything Everywhere All at Once is without a doubt is Steven Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical recounting of his formative years. It’s not difficult to see why many pundits believe The Fabelmans will steamroll its competition and inevitably take home the top prize at the Academy Awards. Its far more traditional awards fare helmed by one of the most important filmmakers in the history of cinema, and it’s certainly no less deserving of winning Best Picture either. The Fabelmans is an incredible film that ranks among Spielberg’s best. However, I get the impression that The Fabelmans could suffer the same fate as Damien Chazelle’s La La Land. The two films share a striking amount of similarities. Both are love-letters to cinema by prolific filmmakers and were established as the early frontrunner after winning the People’s Choice Award at TIFF. In both cases, their biggest competition is a smaller, more topical film that pushes cinema forward, rather than basking in its “glory days”. The Fabelmans is likely to earn a high nomination total and could go on to win Spielberg his third Academy Award for Best Director, but I have a strong feeling that it will just fall short of winning Best Picture.
Todd Field’s first film in sixteen years may very well be the most critically acclaimed film of 2022 so far. It’s a brainy, ambitious, exquisitely written, and topical masterpiece that will certainly appeal to Academy voters seeking out highbrow entertainment. With Cate Blanchett on track to win her third Academy Award and the film doing well at the box office, TÁR seems to be a lock for a Best Picture nomination at this point. It earned the most nominations (5) out of any film at the Gotham Awards this year and will likely be backed by many critics’ groups.
Martin McDonagh’s last film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was likely the runner-up for Best Picture in 2017 and established McDonagh as one of the most prolific writer/directors working today. McDonagh’s fourth feature reunites In Bruges stars, Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson, and is perhaps his most acclaimed work to date. While it’s more on the comedic side and is not necessarily traditional Oscar fare, The Banshees of Inisherin is an extremely well-written and acted film, and its themes of isolation, existentialism and the importance of human connection, are deeply resonating with audiences in a post-COVID world.
Sarah Polley has only made a handful of films as a director but has attained an immense level of respect by critics and industry professionals. Women Talking is her most high-profile film to date and was runner-up for the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, narrowly losing to The Fabelmans. While it’s received some criticism for its washed-out visuals, the way the film explores sexual abuse and delves into extremely challenging subject matter with compassion and hope, has impressed both critics and audiences who have seen the film at festivals.
I wouldn’t have believed it at the beginning of the year, but Top Gun: Maverick seems like a lock for a Best Picture nomination at this point. Its predecessor may be slightly dated and cheesy, but Top Gun: Maverick is a genuinely cinematic and masterfully crafted Blockbuster, that has taken the world by storm. Both audiences and critics are eating the film up. It has broken numerous records at the box office and is one of the most widely acclaimed films of the year. It will likely be a top contender in numerous below-the-line categories, which will translate to a Best Picture nomination, and perhaps a Best Actor nomination for Tom Cruise.
Damien Chazelle is back with his most expensive and ambitious filmmaking statement to date. Babylon seems to be a return to form for Chazelle, as he’s exploring themes of excess, fame and the American Dream within the context of Hollywood. While this is one of the few remaining films that has not been screened for critics and/or public audiences yet, just based on Chazelle’s track record, Babylon will likely be a major contender in both the below and above the line categories. However, the response towards the trailer has been relatively mixed to negative, with many cinephiles expressing concerns that the film may be messy and lacking in substance. It seems to be repping a sex, drugs and rock and roll aesthetic that is becoming less and less appealing to mass audiences as the years go by. It also doesn’t help that one of its lead stars (Brad Pitt) is shrouded in controversy at the moment. That being said, Damien Chazelle is an incredible filmmaker who hasn’t had a misfire yet, so until proven otherwise, Babylon will appear in many of the major categories on my predictions.
I am very curious to see how Academy voters respond to She Said, a critical look at how two New York Times journalists took down Harvey Weinstein and exposed the corrupt system in Hollywood that enables abusers. It’s an uncomfortable watch, especially for Academy members considering Weinstein’s history with the Oscars. Odds are, the Academy will feel compelled to right their wrongs and award the film, both due to the importance of the story being told and the overall quality. While it may not rack up a ton of nominations in other categories, it’s a strong and to the point journalism procedural that deserves to be amongst this year’s Best Picture lineup.
There is skepticism regarding whether The Whale will be able to sneak into the Best Picture lineup. It’s unprecedented for an independent distributor to get two films into Best Picture, and A24 have already expressed they are putting most of their resources into campaigning Everything Everywhere All at Once. On top of that, The Whale has relatively mixed reactions from critics, with some believing the film is emotionally manipulative or doesn’t deviate far enough from the stage play. That being said, audiences and members of the film community who have seen the film at festivals have really taken to it, including myself. It has gained a fair amount of mainstream traction due to the fact that it is Brendan Fraser’s long-awaited comeback. I believe The Whale will have a similar awards trajectory to Dallas Buyers Club, another film with mixed-to-positive reviews from critics that was able to make it into Best Picture. It resonated with audiences and broke into the cultural zeitgeist due to a comeback performance from a formally prolific actor, doing more transformative and dramatic work.
2022 is a return to form for the film industry, after it had been plagued by COVID for the past two years. There has been an emphasis placed on the theatrical experience and monitoring films that are able to thrive in cinemas. That’s why I believe this year, we will see not one, but two Blockbuster films make it into the Best Picture lineup. Avatar is the highest grossing film of all time, and a film that came awfully close to winning Best Picture, so it’s very likely that its long-awaited sequel will also be a massive Awards contender. The film has loads of hype surrounding it and is sure to be a smash hit at the box office.
Other Contenders
Outside of the ten films listed above, there are a handful of contenders waiting patiently on the outside, that have a realistic shot at earning a Best Picture nomination. It is unprecedented for Netflix to go a year without getting at least one film into the Best Picture lineup, and while their roster is weaker compared to previous years, they do have a few films that could surge at the last minute. While Glass Onion and Pinocchio have done very well on the festival circuit, All Quiet on the Western Front seems like their strongest contender. It is a brutal and mesmerizing war film that has gained a fair amount of steam in the days since its release on Netflix. It is the current frontrunner to win Best International Feature and could be a contender in several below the line categories, so it certainly has a shot at earning a Best Picture nomination.
Speaking of International contenders, Park Chan-Wook’s Decision to Leave is one of the most acclaimed films of the year, by a director who has been notoriously ignored by the Academy in the past. Considering this is perhaps his most tame and high-brow film, it could be the perfect opportunity for the Academy to recognize him. Triangle of Sadness is one of the most prolific films on the awards circuit this year and is doing very well with audiences, despite earning somewhat mixed reactions from some critics. The film probably won’t have the support of the critic’s bodies, so it would need to do well at the Guild awards to propel itself back into the Best Picture conversation. The Woman King has lost some steam due to its early release date, but it really resonated with audiences and did very well at the box office, so it could potentially find itself back in the awards conversation. It’s a very well-made film with a lot of potential for success in the below-the-line categories. Lastly, if Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is as successful as its predecessor, what’s stopping it from earning a Best Picture nomination?
Stay tuned for more awards coverage in the coming weeks, as we will break down the contenders in each major category.
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