With awards season officially in full swing, we at keithlovesmovies will be extensively covering all of the precursors leading up to the Academy Awards. As always, The Gotham Awards were the first awards body to announce their nominees. While they focus almost exclusively on independent American films, they do provide some clarity as to which smaller films will likely make it into the big leagues. While these respective films were not eligible in the main categories, Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Adam Sandler (Hustle) and the cast of Fire Island, will be receiving tribute awards.
BEST FEATURE
- The Cathedral
- Dos Estaciones
The Best Feature race is a tense battle between Todd Field’s TÁR and The Daniels’ Everything Everywhere All at Once, the two most critically acclaimed films of the year thus far. While Everything Everywhere All at Once is certainly the more popular film and seems more likely to win the top prize at the televised awards ceremonies, TÁR clearly has more support from this awards body. It has a higher nomination total and fits the traditional definition of an independent film more neatly. That being said, don’t count out Aftersun. It is also among the most acclaimed films of the year, and while it is far too small and niche to compete at the Academy Awards, The Gotham Awards do occasionally honor low-budget, emotionally intimate dramas over more popular films (i.e. The Rider over The Favourite, First Reformed and If Beale Street Could Talk in 2018). Considering The Cathedral and Dos Estaciones are relatively unknown films and did not receive any other nominations, it’s safe to say that they don’t stand a strong chance at competing with the three aforementioned films
MY PREDICTION: TÁR
RUNNER UP: Everything Everywhere All at Once
DARK HORSE: Aftersun
MY PICK: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
- All That Breathes
- All the Beauty & the Bloodshed
- I Didn’t See You There
- The Territory
- What We Leave Behind
The Best Documentary race is shaping up to be very interesting this year. Laura Poitras’ Golden Lion Winner All the Beauty & the Bloodshed is the clear frontrunner to win this award and will likely sweep this category throughout the season. However, it is very surprising to see the omission of Sundance heavyweights Fire of Love and Navalny, which both appeared to be shoe-ins for this category. While they are not completely out of awards race yet, the stock has certainly risen for The Territory and All That Breathes in particular, two films that have been garnering a significant amount of attention as of late.
MY PREDICTION: All the Beauty & the Bloodshed
RUNNER UP: All That Breathes
DARK HORSE: The Territory
MY PICK: N/A
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
- Athena
- Corsage
- Saint Omer
France dominated the International Feature category this year, with three films earning nominations (Athena, Happening and Saint Omer), with the latter being the country’s official submission for the Academy Awards. The Banshees of Inisherin is an English-language film that won’t be eligible for this category at most other ceremonies but is considered an international film at the Gotham Awards, because it is an Irish production. Although The Banshees of Inisherin is one of the top awards contenders this season, Park Chan-Wook’s critically acclaimed mystery-romance Decision to Leave seems likely to win this award. The film currently seems to have an outside shot at earning a spot in the Best Picture lineup at the Oscars and winning this award would certainly help its chances.
MY PREDICTION: Decision to Leave
RUNNER UP: The Banshees of Inisherin
DARK HORSE: Saint Omer
MY PICK: Happening
BINGHAM RAY BREAKTHROUGH DIRECTOR AWARD
- Charlotte Welles (Aftersun)
- Owen Kline (Funny Pages)
- Elegance Bratton (The Inspection)
- Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic (Murina)
- Beth de Araújo (Soft & Quiet)
- Jane Schoenbrun (We’re All Going to the World’s Fair)
Considering Aftersun earned a nomination for Best Feature, and Charlotte Welles has been touted to be the next big name within Independent Cinema, she is the strong frontrunner to win this award. However, The Inspection also received quite a few Gotham Awards nominations. The film did very well with both critics and audiences at the New York Film Festival and The Toronto Film Festival, so Elegance Bratton could give Welles some competition for this award.
MY PREDICTION: Charlotte Welles (Aftersun)
RUNNER UP: Elegance Bratton (The Inspection)
DARK HORSE: Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic (Murina)
MY PICK: Charlotte Welles (Aftersun)
BEST SCREENPLAY
- After Yang (Koganada)
- Armageddon Time (James Gray)
- Catherine Called Birdy (Lena Dunham)
- TÁR (Todd Field)
- Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
The biggest surprise out of all the nominations this year, is the omission of Everything Everywhere All at Once, which seemed like a shoo-in for this category and is currently the frontrunner to win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. With Everything Everywhere All at Once absent from this category, this seems like a fierce battle between Women Talking and TÁR, both films with a heavy emphasis on dialogue. While TÁR earned more nominations at the Gotham Awards overall, Women Talking seems more likely to win this award. The screenplay does a lot of heavy lifting and is elegantly written by Sarah Polley, who is a widely beloved name within the realm of independent cinema. James Gray’s Armageddon Time has also been receiving a fair amount of attention as of recent, specifically for its authentically written portrayal of childhood and New York life in the 1980s. While Armageddon Time certainly doesn’t have the same level of acclaim or awards hype as TÁR and Women Talking, it could be a dark horse contender on the strength of James Gray’s name alone. I also wouldn’t completely count out Catherine Called Birdy or After Yang, which are two smaller films that have passionate fan bases and have garnered acclaim specifically for their screenplays.
MY PREDICTION: Women Talking
RUNNER UP: TÁR
DARK HORSE: Armageddon Time
MY PICK: TÁR or Armageddon Time
OUTSTANDING LEAD PERFORMANCE
- Cate Blanchette (TÁR)
- Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
- Colin Farrell (After Yang)
- Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
- Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
- Thandiwe Newton (God’s Country)
- Aubrey Plaza (Emily the Criminal)
- Taylor Russell (Bones & All)
- Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Outstanding Lead Performance this year is an absolute bloodbath. It is by far the most difficult category to predict, considering it has ten nominees, and among those are the current frontrunner for Best Actor at the Academy Awards, and three of the top contenders for Best Actress. Considering both Everything Everywhere All at Once and TÁR are widely beloved by the Gotham’s voting body, Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh seem like very likely contenders to win this award. Both are currently battling it out for frontrunner status for Best Actress at the Academy Awards, alongside Danielle Deadwyler, who also received a nomination for Till. If any of those actresses win this award, they will officially assert themselves as the early frontrunner. While The Whale didn’t earn as many nominations as I would have expected it to, Brendan Fraser’s performance is so undeniably strong, that he does seem like a viable contender to win this award as well. Don’t count out Taylor Russell or Paul Mescal either, as both of them deliver acclaimed performances, and their respective films have received quite a few Gotham nominations.
MY PREDICTION: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
RUNNER UP: Cate Blanchette (TÁR) or Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
DARK HORSE: Danielle Deadwyler (Till), Paul Mescal (Aftersun) or Taylor Russell (Bones & All)
MY PICK: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
OUTSTANDING SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
- Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
- Raul Castillo (The Inspection)
- Hong Chau (The Whale)
- Bryan Tyree Henry (Causeway)
- Nina Hoss (TÁR)
- Noemie Merlant (TÁR)
- Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
- Mark Rylance (Bones & All)
- Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
- Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
After Michelle Williams announced that she would be campaigning for Lead Actress as opposed to Supporting Actress, Claire Foy cemented herself as the frontrunner for her bold performance in Women Talking. However, despite that film earning nominations for both Jessie Buckley and Ben Whishaw, Foy is shockingly not among the ten nominees in this category. Stephanie Hsu also seems like a likely contender for Best Supporting Actress at the Oscars, yet she also was omitted. That being said, this is still an extremely impressive crop of nominees. Women Talking, TÁR and The Inspection both received nominations for two actors each. I’m particularly pleased to see both Noemie Merlant and Nina Hoss honoured for their work in TÁR, as well as Bryan Tyree Henry for his underrated performance in Causeway. While Jessie Buckley seems like a viable threat for her fierce performance in Women Talking, my money is on Ke Huy Quan. His performance is the heart and soul of Everything Everywhere All at Once, and his narrative is almost too compelling not to vote for. Hong Chau also has an outside shot, as she’s having quite the year and is widely cited as one of the best parts of The Whale.
MY PREDICTION: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
RUNNER UP: Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
DARK HORSE: Hong Chau (The Whale)
MY PICK: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMER
- Anna Cobb (We’re All Going to the World’s Fair)
- Frankie Corio (Aftersun)
- Anna Diop (Nanny)
- Gracija Filipovic (Murina)
- Kalie Reis (Catch the Fair One)
While children are rarely honoured in this category, Frankie Corio’s sensational performance in Aftersun seems like a done deal. Aftersun is the highest profile and widely acclaimed film in the lineup, and smaller awards organization are going to want to honor Corio’s work, as it will unfortunately likely be ignored by the televised awards. Anna Diop is probably the runner-up, as she garnered acclaim at the Sundance Film Festival for her strong work in Nanny.
MY PREDICTION: Frankie Corio (Aftersun)
RUNNER UP: Anna Diop (Nanny)
DARK HORSE: Gracija Filipovic (Murina)
MY PICK: Frankie Corio (Aftersun)
While we have a long way to go before the Academy Awards nominations are announced, The Gotham’s at least give us a glimpse at what is to come. So far, Everything Everywhere All at Once and TÁR seem like dominant forces this awards season, with Women Talking, Aftersun and The Inspection also off to a great start. Make sure to stay tuned for more awards coverage in the coming weeks.
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