Earlier this month, I shared an in-depth analysis of the Best Picture race and outlined my predictions of the films worthy of securing a spot in the top category at the upcoming Oscars. However, this year’s unusually unpredictable awards season has already made those predictions feel somewhat outdated. With the additional insights provided by the precursors revealed so far, I’ll now shift focus to forecasting the nominees for the four acting categories at the Oscars.
BEST ACTOR
Let’s start with the easiest acting category to predict. Based on the precursors, four actors have consistently secured nominations across the board: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing). While the race for the win seems to be between Brody and Chalamet, these four feel like locks for nominations. That said, Colman Domingo is definitely the most vulnerable of the group. Sing Sing has struggled this season due to A24 shifting its campaign focus to The Brutalist. Still, if Domingo managed to secure a nomination for his performance in Rustin, a film that wasn’t nearly as well-received, it would be surprising to see him miss out here. His performance has been universally praised, making him a strong contender despite the film’s underperformance.
This leaves one final slot, with several contenders vying to claim it. From a statistical standpoint, Daniel Craig (Queer) seems like the safest pick. As a respected actor transitioning into more daring material after his tenure as James Bond, Craig has built a compelling case for his first Oscar nomination. However, Queer is a polarizing and unconventional film, with even some critics typically drawn to experimental work feeling underwhelmed. While Craig has been a fixture on the campaign trail, including a win at the NBR and a SAG nomination, his BAFTA snub, where he seemed like a sure thing, raises concerns. His understated, distant performance may not resonate widely enough with voters.
Craig’s main competition comes from Sebastian Stan, who has two major performances in the running this year. In The Apprentice, Stan delivers a transformative and showy portrayal of Donald Trump, charting his evolution from an ambitious business mogul to the narcissistic monster he is today. While the Academy often rewards physical and transformative performances, the film’s critical lens on Trump has drawn backlash from far-right groups, which could deter some American voters, considering somehow half the population voted for him. That said, The Apprentice has strong international support, with Stan earning Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations. Additionally, his performance in A Different Man won him the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical. This has raised concerns about vote-splitting, as people seem divided on which performance is better.
Finally, Hugh Grant (Heretic) is a dark horse contender. His villainous, scene-stealing turn has earned him nominations at the Critics Choice Awards and BAFTAs, but Heretic likely lacks the gravitas to secure him a spot. While it’s a risk, I believe Sebastian Stan’s remarkable year of work and goodwill within the industry will push him into the fifth slot. There’s significantly more buzz around Stan than Craig this season, making him the more compelling choice for that final nomination.
- Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
- Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
- Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
- Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
- Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
BEST ACTRESS
The Best Actress category has been fiercely competitive in recent years, and this year is no exception. For much of the season, Mikey Madison seemed like the clear frontrunner. At just 25, without a career narrative to bolster her campaign, Madison has captivated audiences with her incredible performance in Anora, widely regarded as the film of the year. She’s been campaigning vigorously, and the film community appears united in their support. However, as The Substance has gained traction as a major awards contender, Demi Moore has emerged as a significant threat. Moore’s performance has been lauded as a career-best, with many calling it bold and emotionally resonant. She claimed a decisive victory at the Golden Globes, delivering a speech that left many viewers deeply moved. Despite The Substance being an unconventional Oscar contender, Moore’s A-list status, compelling comeback narrative, and the transformative nature of her role have struck a chord, particularly with older Academy voters.
Karla Sofía Gascón is set to make history as the first trans actress to receive an Oscar nomination. Her strong performance in Emilia Pérez is a standout, despite the film facing backlash. She’s secured every major precursor, but her press coverage has been limited, partly due to the major outlet doing a poor job of including non-English-speaking performers in their awards season events. Meanwhile, Cynthia Erivo, a previous nominee for Harriet, has garnered significant attention for her role in Wicked. She’s hit all the necessary precursors, though some pundits speculate she could miss out, similar to Margot Robbie’s snub for Barbie last year. However, I find it difficult to bet against these four.
This fifth spot seems like a tight race between Marianne Jean-Baptiste and Fernanda Torres for Hard Truths and I’m Still Here respectively. Baptiste is a previous nominee and has plenty of critic support and won the trifecta. Torres, on the other hand, won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama and has support from Brazilian audiences that are really showing up for her.
Then there’s Pamela Anderson whose film, The Last Showgirl, hasn’t been a big presence this awards season until very recently, but is coming out at the right time and had a strong showing at both the Globes and the SAGs. The Globes nom wasn’t a huge surprise considering they nominate 6 contenders in each category and split Best Actress into comedy and drama (which makes it a field of 12 overall), but the fact that both Anderson and Jamie Lee Curtis were shockingly nominated at the SAGs, means we need to take her and the film seriously overall. Anderson wasn’t shortlisted for the BAFTA, but she’s a much bigger name in North America and isn’t necessarily well respected so I’m not surprised an organization like the BAFTAs ignored her. She has an amazing comeback narrative, like Demi Moore, and the performance very much mirrors her own personal struggles. She’s also been campaigning and has won over a lot of people who may not have respected If the field wasn’t so crowded she would have a great shot at earning a nomination, especially considering her underdog status in this race and the momentum she gained through earning the Globe and the SAG nominations. However, I think her journey this awards season unfortunately may end at the SAGs.
Angelina Jolie seemed like a shoe in for a nomination and a potential win contender at the beginning of the season. She’s a previous winner, an A-list star, and it’s one of the only roles she’s taken on since transitioning into directing. Maria is yet another biopic of a powerful historical female figure directed by Pablo Larrain, whose two previous biopics earned their actresses Oscar nominations (Natalie Portman in Jackie and Kristen Stewart in Spencer). On paper it seems crazy to leave her out of my predictions, especially considering her great performance in a very demanding role. However, it has continuously flopped since premiering at Venice, receiving middling reviews (a big strike against it considering his previous two biopics received rapturous responses at Venice, despite becoming polarizing later). Many also seem to find Jolie’s performance to be too baity and lacking in subtlety, and some critics have pointed out that Maria Callas is not nearly as compelling of a subject as Jackie Kennedy or Princess Diana, and she’s also not nearly as widely known. She lost the Golden Globe to a much internationally lesser known actress in Fernanda Torres, which that category should have been a layup for Jolie. Then she shockingly missed the SAG (which also should have been a shoe-in for a nomination), and missed the BAFTA longlist.
While I can’t completely count Jolie out since she has been campaigning quite vigorously and she’s an extremely popular actress with a great comeback narrative, she’s faced way too many losses this season to seriously count her in. I’d have to say the same for Nicole Kidman, who won the Volpi Cup at Venice over Jolie for her performance in Babygirl. Kidman is a major star comparable to Jolie, a previous winner, and even more well respected. Babygirl is considered her most daring performance in recent years, the film is surprisingly more commercially successful than anyone expected it to be, and it’s well liked by critics. However, the film is an erotic thriller, a genre that the Academy has only gone for on a few occasions. Babygirl is also a pretty silly movie, despite having a message about shining a light on the sexual desires of older women. The fact that she missed the SAG and especially the Critics Choice nominations is a big sign that this isn’t happening.
Saorise Ronan has been campaigning a lot this season on behalf of her two films, The Outrun and Blitz, but neither film was that well received. The Outrun in particular was a meaty role for her and she produced the film, prompting lots of praise and Oscar buzz after its premiere at Sundance. Telluride dedicated their tribute series to Saorise this year kicking off her campaign to a good start, but despite praise for her sensitive portrayal of a recovering alcoholic, the film’s middling reviews have dismantled her campaign and she hasn’t been nominated at any major precursor, even missing at the Globes. The Room Next Door came out of the gate strong, winning the Golden Lion at Venice, but it hasn’t really caught on outside of Almodovar’s fanbase, with many criticizing the stilted dialogue. That being said, Tilda Swinton’s performance has garnered praise, and she’s more than due for another Oscar nomination since winning for Michael Clayton back in 2007. She earned a Golden Globe nomination, keeping herself in the conversation, but the film has faded too much into the background for her to be a viable contender.
Lastly, there’s Kate Winslet in Lee, which we cannot rule out. Lee premiered at TIFF in 2023 and barely generated any buzz when it released theatrically only a few months ago, but she managed to score a Golden Globe nomination and a BAFTA longlist appearance – as did Amy Adams for Nightbitch, so they’re both on the outskirts of the conversation. Despite a whole pool of possible contenders, I think Fernanda Torres will take that last nomination
- Demi Moore – The Substance
- Mikey Madison – Anora
- Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
- Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
- Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Best Supporting Actress is potentially the toughest category to predict this year, with about ten possible contenders with a chance of getting nominated. Zoe Saldaña currently leads the pack for her performance in Emilia Pérez. Despite a wave of viral backlash aimed at the film, none of the negativity has been directed at Saldaña herself. As the highest-grossing actress of all time, thanks to her roles in the Avatar and MCU franchises, Saldaña is a beloved figure in Hollywood. However, she hasn’t had many roles that truly showcased her dramatic range, often taking character roles where she’s caked in makeup and prosthetics. Her performance as Rita in offers the Academy a chance to honor her career and recognize the film overall.
Her biggest competition comes from Ariana Grande in Wicked. Though her casting as Glinda initially raised eyebrows among musical theater purists, Grande proved she was the perfect choice. Already known for her vocal talents, she surprised many with her comedic timing and the emotional depth she brought to the character, often outshining her co-star, Cynthia Erivo. Grande could easily win at the Critics Choice or SAG Awards, but Saldaña’s likely wins at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs may give her the edge in the Oscar race. Regardless, Saldaña and Grande are the only true locks in this field.
The rest of the category is far more challenging to call. Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) has surged following the film’s strong showing at the BAFTAs. While her screen time is limited, Rossellini delivers a memorable performance, and as a veteran actress who has yet to receive her due, her nomination feels increasingly likely. Beyond these three, the competition intensifies. Margaret Qualley (The Substance) was expected to ride the film’s likely Best Picture nomination into this race, but her snubs at the BAFTAs and SAGs are concerning. Although she earned spots at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards—and has won several critics’ group prizes—the category is simply too competitive to guarantee her a nomination.
Selena Gomez, also from Emilia Pérez, has been a major topic of conversation this season as she transitions into serious acting. While her inclusion alongside Ariana Grande would make for a compelling narrative with two of the biggest pop stars of their generation earning Oscar nominations, her performance has been divisive. Some Spanish-speaking critics have panned her Spanish-language delivery. However, she landed a crucial BAFTA nomination, and the film’s surge might carry her to a nomination despite the controversy.
Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) delivers one of the strongest performances in the category, but the film’s second half has proven to be slightly divisive as she only appears at the beginning of the second half. Reports of voters failing to finish the film are particularly worrying. Although Jones has been inconsistent at precursors, The Brutalist remains a major contender, and the passion for her performance from lovers of the film might be enough to secure her a spot. Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson) continues to prove she’s one of her generation’s most promising actresses, but the film has struggled to gain traction. She missed at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, though nominations at the Critics Choice and SAG Awards suggest she’s still in the conversation.
Jamie Lee Curtis (The Last Showgirl) is enjoying a surprising late-season surge. Known as the best campaigner in Hollywood, she has secured nominations at SAG and BAFTA despite a relatively minor role in the film. Her nomination would be ridiculous, especially if her co-star Pamela Anderson isn’t also recognized, but Curtis’s goodwill in the industry might propel her to a spot.
Finally, the momentum of A Complete Unknown introduces two additional contenders: Elle Fanning and Monica Barbaro. While Fanning is the bigger name, Barbaro’s portrayal of Joan Baez, complete with singing, has drawn significant attention. Barbaro’s SAG nomination, and the film’s growing popularity, make her a strong dark horse for a nomination. Another possibility is Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys), whose heartfelt performance has deeply moved audiences but lacks significant screen time or a standout dramatic moment, Ultimately, this category is wide open, but here are my predictions:
- Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
- Ariana Grande – Wicked
- Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
- Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
- Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Best Supporting Actor is far easier to predict than its counterpart, with a clearer hierarchy of contenders emerging. Kieran Culkin is the undeniable frontrunner for his performance in A Real Pain. While some argue that the role doesn’t stray far from his real-life personality, his portrayal is so passionate and likeable, and the goodwill he’s built from Succession guarantees his victory. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) missed a SAG nomination, but that’s more reflective of the SAG voters’ lukewarm response to the film as a whole than any lack of enthusiasm for Pearce’s performance. With plenty of recognition elsewhere, he remains a strong pick for a nomination, especially considering many people are still upset he was snubbed for Memento back in 2001.
Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) and Yura Borisov (Anora) have both landed nominations at every major precursor, solidifying their places as near-locks for this category. Both performances have received widespread acclaim, and their consistent presence in the awards conversation makes them safe bets. That leaves one final spot, with two strong contenders vying for it. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) boasts an incredible narrative. As a former member of the Sing Sing theater program, Maclin brings a deeply personal and authentic touch to his performance. However, his awards campaign has been limited, and despite earning a critical BAFTA nomination, he’s been absent from most other precursors.
In contrast, Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) has been consistently recognized, earning nominations at the Golden Globes, SAGs, and BAFTAs. Strong’s performance as Roy Cohn is a standout, showcasing his immense range and building on the momentum of his success in Succession. While The Apprentice has underperformed overall, Strong’s consistent presence at key precursors makes him the safer choice for the final nomination.
- Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
- Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
- Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
- Yura Borisov – Anora
- Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Follow along with the rest of our awards season coverage as we head into the new year and to the 97th Academy Awards taking place Sunday, March 2nd, 2025.
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