The 97th Academy Awards are airing tonight, which means it’s finally time to present our final Oscar predictions before the big night. This season has certainly been one full of ups and downs, leading up to what has perhaps been one of the most dramatic, and thrilling awards season’s since I’ve been following the Oscars. There are more than a few categories that are still completely up in the air, or have some room for a surprise, so it’s very tough season to predict.
So, without further ado, I have listed my predictions and personal picks in all 23 categories down below.
BEST PICTURE
Frankly, this has been one of the most unpredictable races I’ve ever seen. At one point, Emilia Pérez, Wicked, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Anora all looked like they had a chance to win the big prize, with each film holding the frontrunner status at one point or another. Despite a whopping 13 nominations, the extreme backlash and controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez has removed it from the conversation entirely. The Brutalist is proving to be too obtuse for some Academy members, and its ridiculous AI controversy isn’t helping its case either. Wicked lost at the SAG awards which was supposed to be a layup, and didn’t earn a screenplay or director nomination. This leaves Conclave and Anora. The latter is the most widely agreed upon film of the year, topping countless critics lists and winning over the hearts of the industry and many audiences too. Sean Baker has a strong career narrative, and the film tackles relevant themes regarding class differences, without it feeling too heavy. It won the Critics Choice Award, the PGA, and the DGA, which makes it the clear frontrunner to win.
However, this isn’t an Oppenheimer or Everything Everywhere All at Once situation. Anora has suffered some major losses and doesn’t have the strongest win package. Neither does its biggest competition, Conclave, which commonly isn’t listed among audiences’ favorites of the year, but it is widely liked by just about anyone who has seen it, which will help it on a preferential ballot. I wasn’t prepared to take Conclave seriously, but it did win both the BAFTA and the SAG. If it had won at the Golden Globes as well and built up serious momentum from the very beginning, I would have considered switching my prediction, but I do believe Anora will be our Best Picture winner at the end of the day. It’s the more ambitious and fresh film, from a director who is having a significant moment.
My Prediction: Anora
Dark Horse: Conclave
My Personal Pick: The Brutalist
BEST DIRECTOR
In this category, Brady Corbet has held the frontrunner status in this category since winning Best Director at the Venice Film Festival. The Brutalist is an undeniably massive undertaking that was somehow made for only $10 Million, despite being a grand epic. He absolutely deserves to win the award in my opinion, but I think the tides have shifted to Sean Baker. Corbet lost the Critics Choice Award to Jon Chu (who isn’t nominated), and then the DGA to Baker. Anora is clearly the bigger contender and Sean Baker has been building up respect in the industry for years, whereas Brady Corbet is just starting to gain widespread recognition.
My Prediction: Sean Baker – Anora
Dark Horse: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
My Personal Pick: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
BEST ACTOR
Timothee Chalamet is coming off of a big win at the SAG Awards, which has made many start to predict that he could pull an upset and beat Adrien Brody’s record of being the youngest Best Actor winner in the history of the Academy Awards. While Chalamet is on a hot streak and A Complete Unknown has proven to be very beloved by the industry and audiences, Brody’s performance is clearly on another level and he’s swept every other major precursor.
My Prediction: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Dark Horse: Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
My Personal Pick: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
BEST ACTRESS
The most difficult category to predict this year, it is one that could result in a huge surprise. Demi Moore is clearly the frontrunner as she won the Golden Globe for Best Musical/Comedy and the SAG Award for her performance in The Substance. However, Mikey Madison has regained some momentum when she won at the BAFTAs, which has a fairly accurate track record in this category for her lead performance in Anora. There’s also Fernanda Torres, who has been a huge sensation this awards season. Brazilian cinephiles has really shown up to support and root for Fernanda Torres and I’m Still Here, and that excitement has carried all over the world. The film is surging right now and she won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama. She hasn’t competed against Mikey or Demi at any major awards, so it’s hard to tell how big of a threat she is to actually pull an upset. I’m going to stick with Demi, as she has a strong narrative and the film is widely beloved, but I wouldn’t be surprised if an upset occurs.
My Prediction: Demi Moore – The Substance
Dark Horse: Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here OR Mikey Madison – Anora
My Personal Pick: Mikey Madison – Anora
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kieran Culkin has swept all season, and while it’s not that common for an actor to win without their film being a Best Picture contender, A Real Pain clearly has industry support. Culkin’s performance has resonated with audiences, and he’s very popular right now after winning a ton of awards for his performance in the last season of Succession.
My Prediction: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Dark Horse: N/A
My Personal Pick: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
This is another case of an across the board sweep. Zoe Saldaña is the highest grossing actress of all time and she’s finally making the transition to more meaty roles, like that in Emilia Pérez. It’s a great narrative and while the film has lost steam due to the controversies surrounding it, I still think Saldana is far enough in the lead that she won’t be affected by it. She’s won every possible precursor, and her biggest competition, Ariana Grande in Wicked, will likely be awarded next year for her role in the sequel, Wicked: For Good.
My Prediction: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez
Dark Horse: N/A
My Personal Pick: Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
My Prediction: Anora
Dark Horse: The Substance OR A Real Pain
My Personal Pick: Anora
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
My Prediction: Conclave
Dark Horse: Nickel Boys
My Personal Pick: Conclave
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
My Prediction: The Brutalist
Dark Horse: Nosferatu OR Maria
My Personal Pick: The Brutalist
BEST EDITING
My Prediction: Conclave
Dark Horse: Anora
My Personal Pick: Anora
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
My Prediction: Wicked
Dark Horse: The Brutalist
My Personal Pick: Wicked
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
My Prediction: Wicked
Dark Horse: N/A
My Personal Pick: Wicked
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
My Prediction: The Substance
Dark Horse: N/A
My Personal Pick: The Substance
BEST SOUND
My Prediction: Wicked
Dark Horse: Dune: Part II OR A Complete Unknown
My Personal Pick: Dune: Part II
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
My Prediction: The Brutalist
Dark Horse: Conclave
My Personal Pick: The Brutalist
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
My Prediction: El Mal – Emilia Pérez
Dark Horse: N/A
My Personal Pick: Mi Camino – Emilia Pérez
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
My Prediction: Dune: Part II
Dark Horse: N/A
My Personal Pick: Dune: Part II
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
My Prediction: Flow
Dark Horse: The Wild Robot
My Personal Pick: The Wild Robot
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
My Prediction: I’m Still Here
Dark Horse: Emilia Pérez
My Personal Pick: I’m Still Here
BEST DOCUMENTARY
My Prediction: Porcelain War
Dark Horse: No Other Land
My Personal Pick: N/A
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
My Prediction: Yuck!
Dark Horse: Wander to Wonder OR Magic Candies
My Personal Pick: Yuck!
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
My Prediction: A Lien
Dark Horse: The Man Who Wouldn’t Remain Silent
My Personal Pick: I Am Not a Robot
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
My Prediction: I Am Ready Warden
Dark Horse: Death By Numbers
My Personal Pick: I Am Not a Robot
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