The 83rd Annual Golden Globe Awards are being held tonight at the Beverly Hilton in Los Angeles, California. Traditionally considered the second most prestigious film awards show behind the Academy Awards, the Globes have had a complicated history. For years, the organization behind the ceremony was plagued by controversy, with repeated allegations of unethical practices, including bribery and nominations seemingly driven solely by star power rather than merit. However, since the overhaul of the HFPA, the Golden Globes have undergone a significant transformation. The ceremony has become far more internationally focused, often spotlighting global cinema and making inspired, occasionally left-field choices that set it apart from other awards bodies. As a result, the Globes are once again an intriguing and worthwhile show to follow. While not every winner will go on to repeat their success at the Oscars, the Golden Globes still offer a valuable snapshot of where the race currently stands across major categories. With that in mind, let’s dive into the film awards and break down our predictions for what we think will win.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
The Best Picture – Drama category at this year’s Golden Globes is far more difficult to predict than Best Picture – Comedy or Musical, which has a clear frontrunner. Looking at the field, two films stand out as the primary contenders. Sinners currently feels like a solid number two in the Oscar race behind One Battle After Another, and has proven to be immensely popular with both critics and general audiences. That said, the film’s international box office performance hasn’t matched its strong U.S. results, which could be a disadvantage with the Golden Globes’ increasingly international voting body. Hamnet, on the other hand, fits the profile of a film that often succeeds in this category. It’s a prestige drama with a strong lead performance contender, whereas Sinners is a populist genre film that could realistically lose in every other category except Best Box Office Achievement. Then there are the three NEON titles: Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, and The Secret Agent. While all three are well-regarded, their overlapping fanbases may ultimately split support and prevent any one of them from breaking through. With the race narrowing to Sinners and Hamnet, I’m ultimately predicting the latter to take the win, but I’m not very confident.
BEST PICTURE – MUSCIAL OR COMEDY
This category is typically one of the tightest races, and we’ve seen several instances this decade where the eventual Best Picture winner fails to take the Golden Globe: Everything Everywhere All at Once lost to The Banshees of Inisherin, while last year Anora fell to Emilia Pérez. This year, however, One Battle After Another feels simply too strong. None of the other nominees appear positioned to mount a serious challenge. Marty Supreme is clearly its closest competition, but having missed several key nominations, it lacks the momentum needed to overtake the frontrunner. As a result, One Battle After Another should walk away with this category with ease.
BEST DIRECTOR
This is another clear-cut choice. Paul Thomas Anderson is not only overdue at the Oscars, but he’s also never won at the Golden Globes. This awards season feels like it will continue to be a long overdue coronation for him, following his work on One Battle After Another. While there’s a chance he could miss out on Screenplay here, Best Director appears to be firmly locked up.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
This is another clear choice. Jesse Buckley’s performance is poised to sweep the major televised awards shows. She’s a deeply respected actor who has steadily built an impressive career since breaking out in the late 2010s, and this role represents a major showcase for her talent. With Hamnet also my pick for Best Picture – Drama, Buckley feels like a natural and inevitable companion win.
BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
This race isn’t quite as clear-cut as Best Actress in a Drama, but I’m still fairly confident that Rose Byrne will walk away with the win, following her performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. She’s the critics’ favourite this year, having pulled off the impressive feat of winning the critics’ trifecta (LAFCA, NYFCC, and NSFC). Byrne is also a widely liked and respected actor with a long résumé of beloved films and television work, which makes her an appealing choice here as it may be her only chance this year to accept an award at a major televised ceremony, as she’s directly competing against Buckley everywhere else. Emma Stone remains a possible spoiler for Bugonia, and in the era of the old Globes I might have even predicted a Kate Hudson upset for Song Sung Blue. As things stand now, though, this feels very much like Byrne’s award to lose
BEST ACTOR – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
This may be the toughest category to predict, as many of the strongest Oscar contenders are competing here rather than in the Drama field. Timothée Chalamet remains the clear frontrunner for the Oscar, but the Golden Globes often invite a shake-up, even with Marty Supreme gaining momentum following its box office success.
Meanwhile, Leonardo DiCaprio is also a major threat, given his role in the current Best Picture frontrunner, One Battle After Another. That said, I’m going out on a limb by predicting an Ethan Hawke win for Blue Moon. While it’s something of a long-shot pick, Hawke is an immensely respected actor who delivers what may be the performance of his career in the film. Coupled with an outstanding year overall, and the film’s surprise Best Picture nomination, it feels like he genuinely has a shot at pulling off the upset
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
This is another category that feels very much like a toss-up. Wagner Moura could follow a similar trajectory to Fernanda Torres, whose Golden Globe win last year was a major moment for Brazilian cinema. The Secret Agent has performed exceptionally well throughout the season, and with a significant portion of the Golden Globes voting body being Brazilian, Moura could benefit from that support. Michael B. Jordan is certainly a strong contender given his success with critics groups, following his lead performance in Sinners, but in a close race, I’m going to predict Moura to take the win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This category has been a true toss-up all season. Early on, it felt like Sean Penn might take the award for One Battle After Another, but his co-star, Benicio Del Toro, has since surged ahead, beating him at nearly every major precursor. Then, Jacob Elordi won the Critics Choice Award for Frankenstein, prompting many pundits to anoint him as the new frontrunner. That said, I don’t think this race is settled just yet. Stellan Skarsgård still feels like a real possibility for Sentimental Value, particularly at the Golden Globes, where the voting body tends to skew more international.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Another category that feels like a complete toss-up. While Amy Madigan’s performance in Weapons appears to be sweeping so far, hers is an unconventional performance to dominate the season, and I strongly suspect One Battle After Another will walk away with at least one acting prize tonight. For that reason, I’m predicting Teyana Taylor to upset Madigan here. Her film’s overall strength, combined with the indelible impression she leaves in the first third of the movie, makes her a compelling and Globes-friendly choice.
BEST SCREENPLAY
While Paul Thomas Anderson is the heavy favourite in this category for One Battle After Another, and Ryan Coogler would likely be next in line for many voters for Sinners, I think the Golden Globes may instead reward one of the international contenders. Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value would make sense, given how many nominations that film earned at the Globes. That said, I’m predicting Jafar Panahi to take the award for It Was Just An Accident. His film boasts a powerful narrative and has performed exceptionally well on the critics’ circuit, making him a strong choice for Globe voters.
Here are Our Predictions in Each Category
Best Picture – Drama: Hamnet
Best Picture – Comedy or Musical: One Battle After Another
Best Actress – Drama: Jesse Buckley – Hamnet
Best Actress – Musical or Comedy: Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Best Actor – Drama: Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Best Actor – Comedy or Musical: Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actor: Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Best Screenplay: It Was Just An Accident
Best Score: F1
Best Original Song: Golden – K-Pop Demon Hunters
Best Animated Feature: K-Pop Demon Hunters
Best International Feature: The Secret Agent
Best Cinematic Or Box Office Achievement: F1
Stay tuned to keithlovesmovies for the latest Awards Season news and analysis, leading up to the 98th Academy Awards on March 15th, 2026.
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