2020 has been an eventful year for the film industry, as it has faced many significant changes. While most theatres were closed throughout the majority of the year and many highly anticipated releases were postponed, 2020 was a very solid year for film all things considering and there are still a handful of spectacular films that deserve awards recognition. Despite a shifted eligibility date, online guild screenings and a remote Oscars broadcast, awards season has quickly adapted to the new climate and fortunately remains mostly in tact. The staff here at keithlovesmovies are following awards season closely this year, by covering all of the major precursors. and frequently providing our updated Oscar predictions. This is part nine of a regularly scheduled segment.
The annual Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs) nominations were announced very recently and have already made a major impact on the trajectory of awards season. The SAGs are an awards ceremony that exclusively honour the best performances of the past year in both film and television. They are voted on primarily by actors and tend to align with the HFPA (Golden Globes) in terms of taste. Many SAG voters are also members of the Academy, so while their nominees do not always line up, they are an extremely important precursor that give us an indication as to how the acting races will play out at the Oscars. Without further ado, let’s take a look at this year’s crop of nominees.
BEST ENSEMBLE
Instead of awarding a prize equivalent to Best Picture, the biggest award at the SAGs goes to the “Best Ensemble”, which awards the film that featured the greatest performances by an overall cast. This award often corresponds with Best Picture at the Oscars, as only three films not nominated for Best Ensemble have gone on to win Best Picture. This stat may seem concerning for heavy hitters like Nomadland, Mank and Promising Young Woman that missed out on a nomination, but two out of three of those Best Picture winners that missed out on a SAG Ensemble nomination happened within the last five years (The Shape of Water and Green Book), so the stat doesn’t necessarily apply anymore.
I mentioned before that the SAGs often align with the Globes, but this year that is not the case, as the majority of the films they nominated in this category were shut out at the Globes, making this year’s Oscar race incredibly difficult to predict. The only film to be nominated for both Best Film at the Globes and Best Ensemble at the SAGs was Aaron Sorkin’s The Trial of the Chicago 7. The film was a shoe-in for a nomination and could potentially win, making it a serious threat to becoming the new frontrunner of the Oscar race. It has a stacked cast of A-list actors at its disposal, but surprisingly only one member of the cast received a individual nomination (Sasha Baron Cohen).
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom and One Night In Miami were both surprisingly shut out of the Best Picture categories at the Globes, but managed to squeeze into the Best Ensemble lineup. Both films have incredible casts and are driven by very theatrical performances , so it their nominations here are well deserved. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom in particular has been sweeping the ensemble awards at the critics circles, so it could pose a major threat to The Trial of the Chicago 7. One Night In Miami on the other hands was doing fairly poorly during the critics circles and missed out on a nomination for NBR, so its chances of staying in the race were looking slim. However, after the Globes nominated Regina King for Best Director and the SAGs included it in the Best Ensemble lineup, it has officially been revived.
Minari was a film that was not expected to perform well at the Globes or the SAGs, so the fact that it received a Best Ensemble nomination is a huge deal, and cements it as a Best Picture frontrunner. The film is incredibly subtle in comparison with its competition and is primarily in another language, so its chances of winning Best Ensemble are slim, but the fact that it was nominated shows that it has a large amount of industry support.
Da 5 Bloods was a film that received mixed reception upon release, so many counted it out of the Oscar race almost immediately. Recently, the film started to perform well at both the critics circles and the industry awards (AFI, NBR), so it looked like it could be re-entering the race. It was completely shut out at the Golden Globes, so I personally counted it out. However, the fact that it received a Best Ensemble nomination is a huge deal, even though it missed out one key nomination in particular, which we will discuss shortly.
In terms of snubs, Mank is the only major one that comes to mind. It has a massive cast with multiple theatrical performances, so its exclusion here definitely sends red flags. That being said, it over-performed at the Globes so this evens it out. Both Promising Young Woman and Nomadland both only feature one awards worthy performance, so their exclusions make sense and do not hurt their Best Picture chances in any way. Judas & the Black Messiah would have majority benefited from a Best Ensemble nomination, but since the film is a late breaker, it still has time to build buzz.
- PREDICTED WINNER: The Trial of the Chicago 7
- RUNNER-UP: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- DARK HORSE: One Night In Miami
- BIGGEST SNUB: Mank
BEST ACTOR
- Anthony Hopkins – The Father
- Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Gary Oldman – Mank
- Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
- Steven Yeun – Minari
This category was mostly consistent with the Globes and established four actors as potential locks for Oscar nominations. Chadwick Boseman, Anthony Hopkins and Riz Ahmed have been firing on all cylinders for the past few months, so I would be shocked if any of them miss out on any major award nominations from this point forward. For a while, it was unclear whether Gary Oldman would receive a nomination for Mank and it started to seem like a similar situation to Robert DeNiro in The Irishman. However, Oldman received both a Globe and a SAG nomination, so he has officially secured himself in the forth slot. When Delroy Lindo missed out on a nomination for his astounding performance in Da 5 Bloods at the Globes, many were shocked and thought it was a one off. However, Delroy was not nominated at the SAGs either, despite the film receiving a Best Ensemble nomination. The fact that Delroy Lindo missed out on both the Globes and the SAGs makes him extremely vulnerable, especially since new contenders are beginning to surge. Throughout the season, many people argued whether the fact that Steven Yeun being campaigning as a lead actor was going to hurt his chances. It started to look like he had vanished from the competition all-together, but he received a SAG nomination, which has revitalized his campaign and has made him fierce competition for Delroy Lindo.
- PREDICTED WINNER: Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- RUNNER-UP: Anthony Hopkins – The Father
- DARK HORSE: Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal
- BIGGEST SNUB: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods
BEST ACTRESS
- Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy
- Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
- Frances McDormand – Nomadland
- Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman
- Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Similar to the Best Actor category, the Best Actress lineup was very consistent with the Globes. Carey Mulligan, Frances McDormand, Viola Davis and Vanessa Kirby all received nominations, securing them as locks at the Oscars. However, that fifth spot is still left wide open. Many were predicting that Zendaya would receive a SAG nomination for her performance in Malcolm & Marie. She is incredibly popular at the moment and her performance is very showy, so she seemed to be the obvious choice for the fifth spot. Unfortunately the negative buzz the film has been receiving primarily from critics and the fact that it is a late breaker, hurt her chances significantly. Andra Day filled the fifth spot at the Globes for her performance in The United States vs. Billie Holliday, but the SAGs decided to go with Amy Adams in Hillbilly Elegy instead. This choice cause quite a bit of outrage, as many consider it to be her worst performance in years, to the point where she is widely predicted to receive a Razzie nomination. The SAGs are bias towards stars of Adams caliber, so it is not necessarily surprising that they decided to honour her. This is likely a one off, as I doubt the Academy would be keen to nominate her for this particular performance.
- PREDICTED WINNER: Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman
- RUNNER-UP: Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- DARK HORSE: Frances McDormand – Nomadland
- BIGGEST SNUB: Zendaya – Malcolm & Marie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
- Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods
- Daniel Kaluuya – Judas & the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night In Miami
- Jared Leto – The Little Things
- Sasha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Unlike the lead acting categories, the supporting acting races are still left wide open. Daniel Kaluuya, Sasha Baron Coen and Leslie Odom Jr. have approached lock territory, as all three were nominated for both the Globes and the SAGs, while the latter two have been nominated for a number of smaller awards as well. Many people were shocked when Jared Leto received a Golden Globe nomination for his performance in the critically panned The Little Things, which I personally thought was an anomaly. However, he once again shows up, as the SAGs decided to also award him with a nomination. He has not campaigned at all and he did not make the BAFTA shortlist, so it is still up in the air whether he will be nominated for an Oscar. Bill Murray occupied the fifth spot at the Golden Globes, but the SAGs decided to double nominate Chadwick Boseman instead. His role in Da 5 Bloods is minor, but very impactful, so it is possible that he could get in at the Oscars. Paul Raci has absolutely dominated at the Critics Circles, but he was snubbed at the Globes and now at the SAGs as well. It is possible his performance was too subtle for the SAGs, but his Oscar chances are beginning to look slim.
- PREDICTED WINNER: Daniel Kaluuya – Judas & the Black Messiah
- RUNNER-UP: Sasha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7
- DARK HORSE: Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night In Miami
- BIGGEST SNUB: Paul Raci – Sound of Metal
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
- Helena Zengel – News of the World
- Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Olivia Colman – The Father
- Yuh-Jung Youn – Minari
Best Supporting Actress was by far the most surprising and unpredictable crop of nominees at the SAGs this year. Amanda Seyfried has been the presumed frontrunner all season and she was nominated the Globes, so the fact that she was shut out at the SAGs is very confusing and makes me question her frontrunner status. That being said, Regina King was shut out at the SAGs two years ago for If Beale Street Could Talk, and she went on to win the Oscar, so it is very possible that she can recover from this snub. Both Olivia Colman and Glenn Close have solidified themselves as near-locks for an Oscar nominations and since Seyfried is not here, the battle for the SAG will likely be between them. However, don’t count out Maria Bakalova, who has been absolutely dominating at the critics awards and has solidified herself as one of the frontrunners in this race. Helena Zengel was initially in the conversation, but started to fade after News of the World premiered and received a lukewarm response. That being said, she has now been nominated for a Globe and a SAG, so its very possible she could receive an Oscar nomination, especially as Ellen Burstyn’s chances are quickly fading. Many were expecting Yuh-Jung Youn to miss out at the Globes and the SAGs, but ultimately get in at the Oscars. While she was shut out at the Globes, the fact that she received a SAG nomination solidifies her as a lock for an Oscar nomination.
- PREDICTED WINNER: Olivia Coleman – The Father
- RUNNER-UP: Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy
- DARK HORSE: Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- BIGGEST SNUB: Amanda Seyfried – Mank
BEST STUNT ENSEMBLE
The final award we’re going to discuss is unique to the SAGs. Best Stunt Ensemble honours the best stunt coordination in film throughout the past year. No other major awards body has a category resembling this, so this is always an interesting race to watch. Mulan and Wonder Woman 1984 are two of the only major blockbusters to be released this year, so it is unsurprising that they were both nominated in this category. Mulan in particular featured some impressive stunt work, but the fact that both of these films were critically panned, ultimately hurts their chances of winning. News of the World seems to be well liked by the SAGs committee, and it has a fair amount of practical stunt-work void of CGI, which they may appreciate. Da 5 Bloods also has some impressive practical stunt-work and is action-oriented, while also being a prestige film, so that is the likely frontrunner. Everyone seems to be confused as to why the SAGs felt compelled to nominate The Trial of the Chicago 7 over Tenet, but sometimes they make some weird decisions in this category.
- PREDICTED WINNER: Da 5 Bloods
- RUNNER-UP: News of the World
- DARK HORSE: Mulan
- BIGGEST SNUB: Tenet
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