editor’s note: the post has been updated with tonight’s winners
We are officially less than a week away from the 95th Academy Awards. All the major guilds have handed out their awards, yet most of the races are far from wrapped up. Usually there’s some continuity between guilds in most categories, but that wasn’t the case this year, making this awards season incredibly unpredictable and exciting. So, without further ado, let’s run through every category and give our predictions on who we think will walk away with the trophy.
BEST PICTURE
In a year so unpredictable, it’s ironic that Best Picture couldn’t be more locked-in at this point. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a rare example of a film that has managed to attain an immense level of critical acclaim, while also breaking into the cultural zeitgeist and capturing the hearts of audiences worldwide. Despite premiering at SXSW almost a year ago, it has already become a stone cold classic and is inarguably the defining film of 2022. It may have come up short at the BAFTAs and Golden Globes, but Everything Everywhere All at Once has cleaned up at basically every other ceremony, claiming the PGA and DGA, and completely sweeping at the SAGs, the Critics Choice Awards and the Independent Spirit Awards. While The Banshees of Inisherin may have posed a threat earlier in the season, there’s no doubt in my mind at this point that Everything Everywhere All at Once will rightfully claim the top prize at the Oscars.
SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST DIRECTOR
It’s hard to believe that the goofballs who turned Daniel Radcliffe into a farting corpse, and directed the music video for “Turn Down for What”, are about to walk away with the Oscar for Best Director, but Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert proved that creativity has no boundaries. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a masterclass in directing, as it seamlessly blends genres and visual styles together at a rapid speed, while still somehow maintaining coherency. The Daniels took risks at every turn, and still wound up making the most universally beloved film of the year. While Steven Spielberg may have given the duo some legitimate competition early in the season, the DGA win cemented the Daniels as the runaway winners.
SHOULD WIN: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WILL WIN: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WINNER: The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BEST ACTOR
Now here’s where things get interesting. When The Whale initially premiered at The Venice Film Festival, it received an extended standing ovation, particularly for Brendan Fraser’s heartbreaking performance. As the standing ovations continued throughout the festival circuit, and videos of Fraser humbly showing gratitude circulated on the internet, he instantly became the clear favorite to win. Not only does Fraser have the strongest narrative, but he has arguably the most emotionally and physically challenging role out of this crop of nominees. While Fraser won big at the SAGs and Critics Choice Awards, Austin Butler does pose a serious threat. Butler is a newcomer though doesn’t have a career narrative like Fraser or Colin Farrell. However, Elvis clearly has far more support within the Academy than The Whale, and Butler’s transformation into the titular star is seriously impressive work. Butler bested Fraser at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, the latter which Farrell was projected to win, but lost on his home turf. Butler’s surprising win at the BAFTAs, alongside the widespread support for Elvis and the Academy’s history of awarding biopic performances, has many pundits giving him the edge over Fraser. This feels like a repeat of Michael Keaton vs Eddie Redmayne in 2014. As much as I’d love to predict Brendan Fraser, all signs point to Austin Butler.
SHOULD WIN: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
WILL WIN: Austin Butler (Elvis)
WINNER: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
BEST ACTRESS
Best Actress is arguably even more nail-bitingly close than the Best Actor race. At the beginning of the season, it seemed like Cate Blanchett was going to steamroll through her competition. Her performance in TÁR is a tour-de-force that will likely be studied by aspiring actors for decades to come. In a career filled with brilliant performances, TÁR stands out as her crowning achievement. In any other year Blanchett would be walking away with her third Oscar, but she’s competing against Michelle Yeoh, who delivers an equally astonishing, albeit very different kind of performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Yeoh has cemented herself as a legend and is finally getting her long overdue recognition. There is a groundswell of support for her to win an Oscar for this performance, as she will make history and become the first Asian woman to win Best Actress.
Blanchett was unstoppable at the beginning of the season, taking home the Critics Choice Award, the BAFTA and a Golden Globe, but her lack of enthusiasm to win her 3rd Oscar has impacted her even more drastically than she probably expected. She used every opportunity to deflect the attention she was getting and campaign on the behalf of her friend Andrea Riseborough instead, which shockingly winded up helping Riseborough to earn her first Academy Award nomination, and gave To Leslie an abundance of attention that it wasn’t getting before. Riseborough has been the talk of the town since the nominations were announced, and while I don’t think she necessarily has a strong shot at going all the way, I do believe she could take votes away from Blanchett, clearing the path for Yeoh to win the award. The last two major precursors (SAG and Indie Spirits) both went to Yeoh, giving her extra momentum going into the night.
SHOULD WIN: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) OR Cate Blanchett (TÁR)
WILL WIN: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WINNER: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan’s beautifully optimistic, one of a kind performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once, combined with his incredibly compelling career narrative, makes him the runaway favorite to win Best Supporting Actor. He has won every single major precursor in this category, except for the BAFTA, which went to Barry Keoghan for The Banshees of Inisherin. Both Keoghan and his co-star Brendan Gleeson have recently been gaining widespread attention, both critically and commercially, for their work in Martin McDonagh’s acclaimed dark comedy. However, I believe they will split votes, clearing the way for Quan to win his much-deserved Academy Award.
SHOULD WIN: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WILL WIN: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WINNER: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Perhaps the most confusing out of the acting categories is Best Supporting Actress. At the beginning of the season, Michelle Williams was projected to run away with the award for her performance in The Fabelmans, but she made the decision to campaign in the leading actress category, which made this race wide open. For a while, many were speculating that one of the Women Talking actresses (either Jessie Buckley or Claire Foy) would claim the frontrunner position, but they ended up splitting the votes and neither got nominated. Angela Bassett looked like she was going to claim the frontrunner position after winning both the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Award for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Bassett is a beloved actress who has yet to win an Academy Award and hadn’t even secured a nomination in over two decades. She made history by being the first actor to earn an Oscar nomination for a performance in an MCU film, and many felt that her emotionally charged role, paired with her career narrative, would get her a long overdue golden statue. However, the tides have changed as both the BAFTAs and the SAGs decided to go in completely directions.
Kerry Condon earned the BAFTA for her scene stealing performance as the moral compass in The Banshees of Inisherin. While she’s relatively unknown within the world of film, Condon is an accomplished theatre actress and delivers arguably the most acclaimed performance out of the bunch. Jamie Lee Curtis threw a wrench in people’s predictions when she surprisingly won the SAG. Curtis’ presence overshadowing her co-star Stephanie Hsu in this category has sparked a lot of controversy, considering she has a smaller and more comedic-oriented role. However, Curtis is an absolute legend of the industry who much like Michelle Yeoh, has been around for years and starred in movies of all genres, yet is only just getting awards recognition at this point in her career. Her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once is more than just a career honor, but a showcase of her versatility and unparalleled commitment and enthusiasm to every role she is given. She demonstrates brilliant physical comedy, and gives a lot of depth to a character that probably wasn’t nearly as crucial on paper.
While I have a feeling Condon will end up walking away with the award, due to the groundswell of support for The Banshees of Inisherin, I would love to see it go to Curtis or even Bassett, as no one in this category delivers an Oscar winning performance in my opinion, and those two actresses at least have a storied career narrative to add fuel to their nomination.
SHOULD WIN: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
WILL WIN: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
WINNER: Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The fact that The Fabelmans might be my least favorite screenplay from this crop of nominees is a testament to how ridiculously strong the Best Original Screenplay category is this year. In recent years, the Academy has seemed to favor the most original and innovative screenplay in this category, choosing inspired picks like Get Out, Parasite and Promising Young Woman. Everything Everywhere All at Once certainly falls in line with those aforementioned films. It would be a very deserving winner as it is brimming with originality and has one of the most daring screenplays we have ever seen. It just won the WGA for Best Original Screenplay, which makes it the projected frontrunner to win this award. However, I think it’s very possible that this is one award that the Daniels don’t go home with. Everything Everywhere All at Once is being viewed as more of a directorial achievement, while the biggest strength of The Banshees of Inisherin is its sharp dialogue. McDonagh picked up a Golden Globe and a BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay, and the film wasn’t eligible at the WGA, making this still a wide-open race. Considering how much support The Banshees of Inisherin and Martin McDonagh have within the Academy, I could most voters giving him the edge over the Daniels in this category.
SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin or TÁR
WILL WIN: The Banshees of Inisherin
WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Banshees of Inisherin
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Unlike Best Original Screenplay, this may be the single weakest Best Adapted Screenplay lineup I have ever seen. Women Talking has underperformed all season as so many pundits are hesitant about predicting it to win an award as major as Best Adapted Screenplay. However, considering the film is clearly the greatest screenwriting achievement out of this crop of nominees, and the film had enough support to squeeze into the Best Picture lineup, I think it’s safe to say that Sarah Polley will be winning her much deserved Oscar. The film also won the WGA, although All Quiet on the Western Front was notably not eligible
SHOULD WIN: Women Talking
WILL WIN: Women Talking
WINNER: Women Talking
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Although the omission of Claudio Miranda’s revolutionary aerial cinematography for Top Gun: Maverick will forever leave a blemish on this lineup, James Friend captures the horrors of war beautifully in All Quiet on the Western Front. The German war epic is as visually breathtaking as it is horrific, and it should be a shoe-in to win this award.
SHOULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front
WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front
WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST EDITING
Many awards pundits seem to live or die by stats, which is going to be many people’s downfall in this category. While Best Editing and Best Sound almost always align, I do believe Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to best Top Gun: Maverick in this category. The Academy are often drawn to the film with the flashiest editing, and that is without a doubt Everything Everywhere All at Once. It’s a mind-blowing feat of editing that stands out, without taking anything away from the other elements of the film. The fact that it won the BAFTA, considering the film didn’t have much support there, makes me confident in predicting it for this category.
SHOULD WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
WILL WIN: Everything Everywhere All at Once
WINNER: Everything Everywhere All at Once
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
While Ruth Carter is a beloved name in the industry and certainly has a shot to pull off another win for her work on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, I think it’s more likely to go to fellow previous Oscar winner, Catherin Martin, for her work on Elvis. Baz Luhrmann films are often showered with awards in the crafts categories, and considering how extravagant and period accurate the costumes are, I have a strong feeling it will run away with this award.
SHOULD WIN: Elvis
WILL WIN: Elvis
WINNER: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Despite underperforming and failing to break into the Best Picture lineup, Babylon is a near lock to win Production Design. It has swept this season, winning at basically every major precursor ceremony. The production design is mind-blowing and clearly the most extravagant out of this crop of nominees.
SHOULD WIN: Babylon
WILL WIN: Babylon
WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST MAKEUP/HAIRSTYLING
The winner of Best Makeup/Hairstyling will likely align with the winner of Best Actor, considering both performances are physically transformative and required their actor to be caked in makeup and prosthetics. I personally believe The Whale is a more impressive achievement, considering it required a full body transformation that mixes practical makeup with new technology. However, considering I’m predicting Austin Butler to take home Best Actor for Elvis, I believe the award for Best Makeup/Hairstyling will come along with it.
SHOULD WIN: The Whale
WILL WIN: Elvis
WINNER: The Whale
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
While it hasn’t been a full sweep in the same way as production design, Justin Hurwitz has been winning countless awards for his bombastic and versatile Babylon score, and I can’t imagine that won’t repeat at the Oscars. Even those who are mixed on the film itself, list the music as a highlight. The score has also done very well on Spotify, and has propelled Hurwitz to even more mainstream levels of recognition.
SHOULD WIN: Babylon
WILL WIN: Babylon
WINNER: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
India deciding to submit Last Film Show as opposed to RRR for Best International Feature was an absolutely ridiculous mistake on their part, considering it probably would have broken into many more categories. That being said, Naatu Naatu was a cultural moment that lends itself to one of most memorable sequences in film this year, and will likely win the Oscar. This will be a major moment for Indian cinema breaking into western culture, as the song will be besting work from heavy-hitters like Rihanna, Lady Gaga, David Byrne and Dianne Warren.
SHOULD WIN: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
WILL WIN: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
WINNER: Naatu Naatu (RRR)
BEST SOUND
Audiences showed up in droves to see Top Gun: Maverick in IMAX for repeat viewings, not only due to the breathtaking visuals and exciting action sequences, but also because of how well crafted the sound design was. The sound of jet engines revving and souring through the sky made audiences feel like they were in the cockpit themselves. The film features some of the most immersive sound work we’ve ever heard and is a clear shoe-in to win this award.
WILL WIN: Top Gun: Maverick
SHOULD WIN: Top Gun: Maverick
WINNER: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
James Cameron has worked tirelessly for the past 13 years to develop technology that would allow him to further immerse audiences in the world of Pandora. Needless to say, he was very successful, demonstrating some of the uncanniest CGI we’ve ever seen. This race was over the moment Avatar: The Way of Water was even announced.
SHOULD WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water
WILL WIN: Avatar: The Way of Water
WINNER: Avatar: The Way of Water
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Despite an extremely strong crop of nominees that includes commercially and critically successful films like Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and indie gems like Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, this race was over as soon as Guillermo Del Toro entered it. The beloved filmmaker put his own spin on the classic story of Pinocchio, crafting a soulful and visually beautiful interpretation worthy of all the awards its won thus far.
SHOULD WIN: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
WILL WIN: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
WINNER: Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
BEST DOCUMENTARY
The best documentary race has been extremely competitive, as the frontrunner has changed multiple times. Fire of Love and All the Beauty & the Bloodshed both are among the year’s most acclaimed films and have a solid shot at winning the award. However, considering its relevant subject matter and the attention the film has been receiving, I am putting my money on Navalny pulling off the win.
SHOULD WIN: Navalny
WILL WIN: Navalny
WINNER: Navalny
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
If Decision to Leave or RRR were nominated then maybe we’d be having a different conversation, but as it stands, All Quiet on the Western Front will be running away with this award.
WILL WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front
SHOULD WIN: All Quiet on the Western Front
Check out our updated 95th Academy Awards prediction post featuring tonight’s winners.
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Make sure to tune into this year’s Academy Awards on Sunday, March 12th, to find out all of the winners.
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