Awards Season Insider 2025: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

The nominations for the 98th Academy Awards are set to be announced tomorrow. After years of wavering interest in the Oscars as an institution, and diminishing viewership, there seems to be a spike in engagement this year, due to so many of the major players this season being bonafide box office hits with major stars attached. Films like Sinners, One Battle After Another, Marty Supreme, Frankenstein, and Weapons are films that managed to break into the cultural zeitgeist and excite a new generation of movie goers who starting to demand more artistry and innovation from studios.

When it comes to the studios, Warner Bros. has dominated this season to an extent that feels genuinely unprecedented. When it was announced that Paul Thomas Anderson was going to make a $150M blockbuster, many pundits were nervous that the film would be a financial disaster. Not only did the film surpass its budget, but it also got career best reviews, which is saying a lot for PTA, who has built an almost unmatched resume. After years of racking up nominations without ever getting the chance to walk to the podium, 2026 finally looks like Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. Much like how Oppenheimer served as a coronation for Christopher Nolan, One Battle After Another will likely be the film that delivers PTA the long-overdue awards recognition he deserves. It has swept the season so far, taps directly into the current American political climate, and proved to be a box office hit. It checks every box and, at this point, stands as the clear frontrunner to win Best Picture.

The only film that realistically threatens its chances is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which also happens to be a Warner Bros. release. Despite losing the top prize at the Golden Globes, it continues to be a serious challenger. If it manages to secure wins at SAG and PGA, it could gain enough momentum to overtake One Battle After Another late in the race. Warner Bros. could make history here, as both films have a very real chance of  breaking the all-time nominations record with 15 nods apiece. They are also behind Weapons and co-distributing F1 with Apple, both of which have some guaranteed nominations and an outside shot of breaking into the Best Picture field

Another exciting trend that should be reflected in this year’s nominees is the growing recognition of cinema as a truly international medium. Since Parasite became the first non–English-language film to win Best Picture, and NEON emerged as a dominant force on the awards circuit, we’ve seen a steady increase in international films breaking into major categories. This year could mark a historic milestone, with three international films potentially landing in the Best Picture lineup for the first time, thanks largely to NEON, who also has a realistic chance of completely dominating the Best International Feature category. Sentimental Value has clearly sustained its status as the studio’s main horse in the race. While it took a notable hit by missing out on getting any SAG nominations, and could underperform earlier expectations with possible omissions for Joachim Trier in Best Director, Best Editing, and Elle Fanning in Best Supporting Actress, the film remains on solid footing overall. Stellan Skarsgård, in particular, is currently the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor, anchoring the film’s awards momentum.

The Secret Agent has been gaining significant traction in recent weeks. Although Wagner Moura missed nominations at both SAG and the BAFTA longlists, his Golden Globe win, along with the film’s victory in Best International Feature, signals strong industry support. That momentum could be enough to secure Brazil its second consecutive Best Picture nomination, bolstered by an exceptionally energized and passionate Brazilian cinephile community that has rallied behind the campaign, much like they did last year with I’m Still Here. It Was Just An Accident entered the season very strong, driven by Jafar Panahi’s powerful personal and professional narrative, his U.S. tour, and the film’s Palme d’Or win. While it remains a critical darling, it appears to lack the visibility that Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent have, which both benefit from having notable stars attached. Even so, the film still feels well-positioned to land nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best International Feature. Though Panahi’s chances of winning may have diminished, there remains enough passion behind the film for it to secure several key nominations.

After a rocky start to the awards season for Netflix, marked by a slate of high-profile festival debuts that looked formidable on paper but failed to garner consistent or particularly strong reviews, the tide has clearly turned. The streaming giant now has a legitimate shot at securing two Best Picture nominations. Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein may lack the near-universal critical acclaim of some of his earlier work, but it has unmistakable support from both general audiences and the industry, and is widely expected to land a double-digit nomination haul. Meanwhile, Train Dreams has emerged as a sleeper hit. Initially overlooked as a serious awards contender following its Sundance premiere last year, the film has since become a festival favorite and performed impressively upon its streaming release. While it’s unlikely to rack up a large number of nominations, its steady presence positions it well for Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, and possibly Best Song.

Focus Features has also enjoyed a banner year, led by Hamnet, which dominated the fall festival circuit and took home the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, along with several major honors from regional festivals. Just as some pundits began to question whether the film was losing momentum, it rebounded decisively by defeating Sinners at the Golden Globes for Best Feature (Drama), reaffirming its status as a top-tier contender. Jesse Buckley has been the clear frontrunner for Best Actress since the film’s Telluride debut, and even strong competition like Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You doesn’t appear to pose a serious threat to her dominance in the category. Focus Features also has Bugonia, which has been remarkably consistent, turning up virtually everywhere this season, even if it lacks the level of buzz that surrounded Yorgos Lanthimos’s previous awards contenders. While it could ultimately land only a couple of additional nominations, namely Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, it still feels pretty secure.

Finally, there’s A24, which has once again demonstrated its ability to handle a $70 million blockbuster without sacrificing its auteur-driven sensibilities—or its bottom line. Marty Supreme has been a major box office success and stands as one of the most popular and widely beloved releases of the year. Timothée Chalamet has been sweeping the season so far, and while the competition in Best Actor is formidable, the combination of industry goodwill and the undeniable strength of his performance makes it feel increasingly like his moment has arrived.

Without further ado, let’s go through all the categories and list our predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.

BEST PICTURE

1. One Battle After Another (Warner Bros)
2. Sinners (Warner Bros)
3. Hamnet (Focus Features)
4. Marty Supreme (A24)
5. Frankenstein (Netflix)
6. Sentimental Value (NEON)
7. Train Dreams (Netflix)
8. Bugonia (Focus Features)
9. It Was Just An Accident (NEON)
10. The Secret Agent (NEON)

Alts: F1 (Apple), Weapons (Warner Bros), Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another 
2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
3. Chloe Zhao – Hamnet
4. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme 
5. Jafar Panahi – It Was Just An Accident 

Alts: Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value, Guillermo del Toro – Frankenstein 

BEST ACTOR

1. Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme 
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
4. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Alts: Jesse Plemons – Bugonia, Joel Edgerton – Train Dreams

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Emma Stone – Bugonia
4. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
5. Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another

Alts: Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue, Amanda Seyfried – The Testament of Ann Lee

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value
2. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
3. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
4. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
5. Paul Mescal – Hamnet

Alts: Miles Caton – Sinners, Adam Sandler – Jay Kelly

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
2. Amy Madigan – Weapons
3. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
4. Wumni Mosaku – Sinners
5. Odessa A’Zion – Marty Supreme

Alts: Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value, Gwenyth Paltrow – Marty Supreme, Ariana Grande – Wicked: For Good

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Sinners – Ryan Coogler
2. Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein
3. Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt
4. It Was Just An Accident – Jafar Panahi
5. The Secret Agent – Kleber Mendonca Filho

Alts: Sorry Baby, Weapons, Blue Moon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
2. Hamnet – Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell
3. Bugonia – Will Tracy
4. Train Dreams – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
5. Frankenstein – Guillermo Del Toro

Alts: No Other Choice, Wake Up Dead Man, Nuremberg

BEST CASTING

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme 
4. Hamnet 
5. Weapons

Alts: Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. K-Pop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amelie
5. Elio

Alts: In Your Dreams

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1. Sentimental Value (Norway)
2. It Was Just An Accident (France)
3. The Secret Agent (Brazil)
4. Sirat (Spain)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Alts: No Other Choice (South Korea), Left-Handed Girl (Taiwan), Sound of Falling (Germany)

BEST DOCUMENTARY

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
3. Apocalypse in the Tropics
4. Cutting Through Rocks
5. The Alabama Solution 

Alts: 2000 Meters to Adriivka, Cover-Up, Seeds, Mr. Nobody Against Putin

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein 
5. Marty Supreme

Alts: Hamnet, F1

BEST EDITING 

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. F1
5. Frankenstein

Alts: Hamnet, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Marty Supreme

Alts: Avatar: Fire & Ash, One Battle After Another

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Wicked: For Good
5. One Battle After Another

Alts: Marty Supreme, Hedda

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Frankenstein 
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. The Smashing Machine
5. One Battle After Another

Alts: Marty Supreme, Nuremberg, Kokuho

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar: Fire & Ash
2. F1
3. Superman
4. Wicked: For Good
5. The Lost Bus

Alts: Sinners, Tron: Ares, Frankenstein 

BEST SOUND

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Sirat

Alts: Avatar: Fire & Ash, Wicked: For Good

BEST SCORE

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Frankenstein
4. Marty Supreme 
5. Hamnet 

Alts: F1, Bugonia, Sirat, Train Dreams

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Golden – K-Pop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You – Sinners
3. The Girl in the Bubble – Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me – Diane Warren: Relentless 
5. Train Dreams – Train Dreams

Alts: Last Time I Seen the Sun – Sinners, Salt Then Sour Then Sweet – Come & See Me in the Good Light

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Snow Bear
2. The Shyness of Trees
3. Playing God
4. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
5. Retirement Plan

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Beyond Silence
2. The Boy with White Skin
3. Rock, Paper, Scissors
4. Two People Exchanging Saliva
5. The Singers

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. The Devil is Busy
3. Armed with Only a Camera
4. All the Walls Came Down
5. Rovina’s Choice

Stay tuned for more awards season coverage, as the Oscar nominations will be announced tomorrow morning.

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Tristan French